BUILT 13:03 · 21 Aug · GOING AT BUILD: Good to Soft
HOW TO READ THIS REPORT · STANDING NOTE & GLOSSARY
Everything below is descriptive. The orders, figures, reads and profiles measure — they do not select, tip or recommend a horse, and no line is a bet leg. The market decides value. Figures, market and going are as of build time (see header); ground changes after build are not reflected. Going and surface records are context, never a downgrade — the market already prices them.
GLOSSARY — 10 TERMS · CLICK TO OPEN
graded NN% · miss NN% · n=N — module-level audit: of that module’s past claims, the share that settled HIT and the share that settled MISS, counted nightly against results and never hand-tuned. Both are shown because the modules do not share a PART convention — a 32% hit rate with a 1% miss rate is a different animal from a 41% hit rate with a 59% miss rate. null 50% appears only where the claim is graded HIT or MISS with no middle, so a coin flip is the exact baseline; where it is graded three ways, no null is stated, because there is no honest one.
HIT / PART / MISS — the three settlement outcomes used when a claim is graded against the result. Hover any grade for that module’s full split and race count.
Dotted-underlined reads — each Forensic Read carries its own hit rate on hover: the share of graded outings that read has hit, alongside its family average.
⇆ on a trainer condition — the two seasons disagree — that condition sits on opposite sides of A/E 1.00 in 2024-25 and in 2026. One of the two is noise and the row cannot say which, so read it as untested rather than as a finding. Each group header carries its own count.
A/E — actual wins divided by the wins the market’s prices implied. Betfair SP is a near-fair book, so 1.00 is the null, not zero: above it the runner or yard beat the market, below it the market was right. Where an interval is shown the figure is coloured only if that interval clears 1.00 outright.
DOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNER — won last time with more in hand than the assessor’s rise. Full dossier on file.
FORMLAB WATCH — flagged by the start-excuse screen.
THIN · CHAINED — collateral-form lines resting on few meetings (THIN) or read through intermediate horses (CHAINED); error compounds with chain length.
FIT n/18 · Peaks · ΔMARK · HIDDEN PEAK — defined inline at the head of the Optimal Conditions Profile.
Grey dimension — no evidence either way; scores zero. Shown so missing data is never mistaken for a mismatch.
1 / 4Datawhat kind of race this is, and what the money thinks
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDER
top pick won 26.6%winner in its top 3 60.9%770 settled raceslatest day: won 6/25 · top-3 17/25
against the marketA/E 0.95 [0.85–1.06]ROI -2.3% [-16.5, +14.2]
FORENSIC READ
top pick won 26%winner in its top 3 60.6%770 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 26.6% · 60.9%)
against the marketA/E 1.02 [0.91–1.13]ROI +14.9% [-5.3, +37.7]one 50.0 winner is 6.4pp of that
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile
Data Order
Forensic Read
races like this one
settled
won
top-3
won
top-3
Class 4
200
22.5%
61.5%
23.5%
62%
sprints (5-7f)
374
28.3%
58.3%
25.1%
55.9%
handicaps
528
22.9%
58.1%
22.7%
58.1%
mid fields (8-11)
279
26.9%
58.1%
26.5%
55.2%
WHAT WINS THIS RACE graded 82% · miss 6% · n=575
20 similar races at HAMILTON PARK, 5.5-6.5f, all-aged handicaps, Class 3-5, Jul-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (100% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (70% from the first three favourites). 25% won last time out, 40% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
40% 4yo
25% 6yo+
25% 5yo
Last ran
50% within 14d
50% 15-45d
Market
35% 2nd favourite
30% 4th+ in the market
30% favourite
LTO form
40% placed last time
35% unplaced last time
25% won last time
The shape of past winners here. Measured: pattern reads like these grade 42.0% hit v 48.1% for the horse-specific measured reads (C7 gate) — profile colour, weighted below the measurements.
The Field at a Glance· figure order · every name jumps to its full card below
The Pace Map· stalls across · projected early position down · drawn from the same reads as the text · [P26]
2 / 4Pace & Race Setuphow this race gets run
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (5 confirmed early types).
This track · what has happened here before — every figure below carries its own count
What this course & distance favours
How often each running style actually wins here — out of every runner that raced that way, not just the winners: front-runners 21% of 82 · prominent racers 15% of 127 · midfield runners 14% of 105 · hold-up closers 5% of 132. Read from 446 runners with an early-position read. Share of past winners (NOT a strike rate — it does not say the style outperforms): prominent racers 33% · front-runners 29%. From 58 of 59 past C&D winners with a style read · won up with the pace. Stiff, steep uphill finish — a real stamina test in the closing furlongs. Draw (course note — editorial, not measured and not graded): 5-6f: little bias (low slightly on soft, high slightly on quicker). 1m-1m1f: low draw (first ~5 stalls) favoured. On soft/heavy runners drift to the far rail favouring high — but soft is now rare. Today: 11 runners — check that against any field-size condition above. Winners’ energy signature: 51.08% spent early (band 50.4–51.62%, 81 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~3 at halfway, 0.16s off the lead). graded 38% · miss 22% · n=1427Today 5 confirmed early types will contest the lead — at a track that rewards prominent racing a hot pace can compromise the pure front-runners, handing it to a prominent horse that sustains or a well-drawn closer.
On the clock here (turf) — races here run the opening third at 99.3 and the final furlong at 106.9 per cent of their own average furlong (turf norms 99.2 and 105.0) — an early pace about typical for the surface, with an attritional finish — stamina counts · 325 races; the horse leading at halfway goes on to win 23.1% of the time against a 14.0% by-chance line — 1.65×· 299 races; ground moves the clock: stride runs 7.505 m on firm side against 7.360 m on soft side · a spread of 0.145 m. Racing TV sectionals & timing 2024→, from the Course Timing and Pace Shape censuses — describes the track, never a horse.
This courseranks #16 of 36 GB courses on class quality · typical race: class 5 · avg field 8 · favourites 33% (A/E 1.03, 275 races) · fair — 61% of winners race early · stiff, steep uphill finish — a real stamina test in the closing furlongs
Today’s field · each horse’s last 6 timed runs unless the line says otherwise
Where the pace is drawn · 11 runners · stalls 1–11
1234567891011
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–11).
The pace map · measured early lanes · L# = late-speed rank
Each horse in its usual early lane — the measured run-style read, not a prediction of today’s break — with its stall and its rank on Finishing Power rank in this field. The early/late split at a glance: a front-lane horse ranked low on late speed needs controlling; a held-up horse ranked L1–L2 needs pace to close into.
The Setup ReadPACE × COURSE × FIELD · COUNTED
What today asks of this field: a contested early pace; stamina at the finish (106.9 v norm 105.0); soft-side ground, where stride here shortens. Each column ticks the best match in THIS field and crosses the worst — hover any cell for its basis.
RunnerShapeEnergyFinishDrawStrideBreakNet
Wreck It Ryley––✓✓–✓+3
Jannas Journey✓–✓✓✗–+2
Abduction––––––+0
Shoot To Kill✗––✓––+0
Sir Garfield✗–––✓–+0
Whiskey Kisses––––––+0
Ashen–––––✗-1
Belsito✗–––––-1
Hunky Dory✗–––––-1
Lipsink✗–––––-1
Stirrup Cup––✗✓–✗-1
Shoot To Kill, Belsito, Hunky Dory all race up with the pace — early pressure is likely, into an attritional finish (106.9 v norm 105.0) — the shape that hands races to the strongest finishers.Wreck It Ryley’s case is cumulative, not single-factor — 3 of the 6 dimensions: second-strongest [P48] finisher in a big field, and the finish here is attritional (106.9 v norm 105.0) · stall 2 = LOW tercile: impact value 1.20 over 78 races here (1.0 = no bias) · the field's best break (-0.07s).If the pressure holds to the line the collapse profits Jannas Journey.The next best cards in the field: Jannas Journey counters on shape (top-2 late speed in this field into a likely pace collapse).And the matrix reads Stirrup Cup worst set up (net -1): the weakest [P48] finisher in this field, and the finish here is attritional (106.9 v norm 105.0); habitually slow away.The count says Wreck It Ryley (net +3) — while the market prefers Sir Garfield, whose case the matrix scores weaker. The divergence, not the read, is what deserves the second look.
EVERY CELL A FIXED RULE QUOTING ITS MEASURED BASIS (HOVER) · NET IS A COUNT, NOT A WEIGHT · CONTEXT, NEVER A SELECTION [P26]
Draw at this track · share of winners by stall thirdmild lean to LOW
LOW41%IV 1.20
MID29%IV 0.93
HIGH30%IV 0.87
basis: HAMILTON PARK, sprints, all goings, 78 races · context only — describes the track, not any runner
whole-career records — not the last-6 window
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: SIR GARFIELD (IRE) is 2/8 on softer ground · WRECK IT RYLEY (IRE) is 0/12 on softer ground · LIPSINK (IRE) is 2/7 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
HUNKY DORY7PROMINENT49.6%#7concedes ~3.9L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, without over-committing — but holds one pace late
SIR GARFIELD (IRE)11PROMINENT50.3%#4concedes ~2.1L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, without over-committing — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
LIPSINK (IRE)8PROMINENT50.8%#8concedes ~1.5L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
JANNAS JOURNEY (IRE)3HELD-UP49.8%#1the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
WRECK IT RYLEY (IRE)2MID50.6%#2held up without the late gear (2nd of 10 on late speed), races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
BELSITO (GER)6FRONT51.8%#6concedes ~2.7L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
SHOOT TO KILL (IRE)4FRONT48.2%–the quickest of today's early types, without over-committing — and finds plenty late · sharp from the stalls
ABDUCTION (FR)5HELD-UP49.5%#5the 5th-strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — needs them to stop in front
STIRRUP CUP1HELD-UP50.5%#10one-paced late — 10th of 10 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
ASHEN (IRE)9HELD-UP49.5%#3one-paced late — 3rd of 10 on late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — needs them to stop in front
WHISKEY KISSES (IRE)10HELD-UP49.8%#9one-paced late — 9th of 10 on late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — needs them to stop in front
Finishing Power ranks where each horse’s final 2f placed among the horses it actually raced against, over its last 6 timed runs. #1 is the strongest finisher in today’s field on that measure.
They spread 3.6 points on early effort (48.2% to 51.8%) — the higher numbers work hardest before the final 2f.
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
SHOOT TO KILL (IRE)FRONTtypically ~4.4 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
LIPSINK (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~2.9 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
SIR GARFIELD (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~2.3 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
BELSITO (GER)FRONTtypically ~1.7 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
HUNKY DORYPROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.11s off the field’s best
measured on their own past openings, SHOOT TO KILL (IRE) should reach the front first — roughly 1.5 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type
Finishing Power · [P48] registered read · final-2f percentile, last 6 timed runs
Graded record (holdout, 2,458 races): its top pick won 15.14% against an any-runner baseline of 11.01%; the winner came from its top 3 40.93% of the time; A/E 1.031. BSP-offset beta CI spans zero — the market already prices this read; context, never value. no read: SHOOT TO KILL (IRE)
3 / 4Forensicthe reads, counted and argued — in one place
SIXTY-SECOND VERDICT
THE SHAPEAn 11-runner Class 4 handicap sprint over 6.03f on Good to Soft ground. Winners here typically raced recently (100% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (70% from the first three favourites).
THE PACEContested early pace likely: 5 early types (SHOOT TO KILL (IRE), LIPSINK (IRE), SIR GARFIELD (IRE), BELSITO (GER), HUNKY DORY). Measured on their own past openings, SHOOT TO KILL (IRE) should reach the front first — roughly 1.5 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–11).
THE LEANBoth orders land on SIR GARFIELD (IRE) -- Top on the figures, 3pts clear of the next, backed since the morning; figure top-2.
THE DANGERLittle to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. WRECK IT RYLEY (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge SIR GARFIELD (IRE) lacks: early sectional positions fit the dominant style here.
THE SWINGA going switch changes the picture most: SIR GARFIELD (IRE) is 4/15 on quicker ground -- records only, aptitude is context, never a downgrade.
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Measured on their own past openings, SHOOT TO KILL (IRE) should reach the front first — roughly 1.5 lengths faster to the 2f marker than the next early type. Winners here typically raced recently (100% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (70% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 51% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, SIR GARFIELD (IRE) leads on 90, 3pts clear of WRECK IT RYLEY (IRE) — backed since the morning. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is SHOOT TO KILL (IRE) — the quickest of today's early types, without over-committing — and finds plenty late, sharp from the stalls. The market agrees — it makes SIR GARFIELD (IRE) the 20% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 11
SIR GARFIELD (IRE)
OR 79 · David Nolan / John & Sean Quinn
MARKET backed 10 → 4.9 · the market rates it a 20% chance
90.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (90.0)Proven over the trip (30 tries, beats market expectation at 1.52)Race-fit — ran 7 days ago
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
WRECK IT RYLEY (IRE)
OR 77 · Cieren Fallon / Alan Brown
MARKET 5.9 · the market rates it a 17% chance
87.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (87.0)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 8
LIPSINK (IRE)
OR 78 · Alistair Rawlinson / Michael Appleby
MARKET 34 · the market rates it a 3% chance
85.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (85.0)Proven over the trip (32 tries, beats market expectation at 1.42)Jockey goes well at this track (2.33x market expectation)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED
1SIR GARFIELD (IRE)net +10+figure top-2+ race-fit (ran <=45d)+ form (top-3 LTO or recent win)+ market top-3+ backed since morning+ sharp from the stalls+ proven at trip+ proven on the going
2WRECK IT RYLEY (IRE)net +9+figure top-2+ race-fit (ran <=45d)+ form (top-3 LTO or recent win)+ market top-3+top-2 late speed today+ sharp from the stalls+energy in the winning band+early sectional positions fit the dominant style here
3JANNAS JOURNEY (IRE)net +8+ race-fit (ran <=45d)+ form (top-3 LTO or recent win)+top-2 late speed today+ proven at trip+ proven on the going+FormLab watch flag+fits the winner profile on recency+meets much weaker company by the marks
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
VALUE ORDER (figure votes silenced · [P79] · forward-tracked from 12 Aug) · 1. SIR GARFIELD (IRE) · 2. WRECK IT RYLEY (IRE) · 3. JANNAS JOURNEY (IRE) · matches the Forensic order today
Optimal Conditions ProfilePEAKS · LAST 24 MONTHS · TOP 4 BY RATING
Each horse read BACKWARD from its best recent runs: the conditions on its peak days versus today, dimension by dimension. Every horse is scored out of the same 18 dimensions — grey means no evidence, and scores nothing.
how to read this section
FIT n/18 — how many of 18 conditions today match the horse’s recent peak days. Every horse is scored out of the same 18, so scores compare across the field.
✓ green = today matches its peak-day conditions · ✗ red = today differs · · grey = no evidence either way (scores 0 — shown so missing data is never mistaken for a mismatch).
Peaks — its best runs in the last 24 months, within 7lb of its best figure (max 4). A horse needs 8+ career runs to be profiled at all.
HIDDEN PEAK — a near-best run at BSP 16+ : the market missed its best day.
ΔMARK — today’s mark minus the mark it carried at its best handicap peak; 0 or less = it has peaked off this mark before.
BELSITO (GER) 13/18 · LIPSINK (IRE) 12/18 · ASHEN (IRE) 11/18 — open all 11 profiles
BELSITO (GER)
today · OR 75 · draw 6 (mid) · front · 12.0 (steady) · Tom Eaves · yard 14d cold
13/18
FIT 0.72
from 4 peaks
Much of today matches this horse's best days. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before, the race looks like being run the way its peaks were and the headgear it peaks in — with the ground, the track grade, the direction, the trip, freshness, the time of year, the field size, the weight, yard form and the rider all matching its peak days. Against: a different class to its peaks; stronger opposition than its peaks came against; a mark above where it peaks; expected to race differently to how it peaked. Its best recent run came at BSP 17.0 — the market never saw it coming.
✓ GOING/SURF · 2/4 soft-side✓ TRACK · 3/4 Hamilton Park✓ HANDED · 3/4 right✓ TRIP · 4/4 in 6.0f±220y✗ CLASS · 3/4 C5✗ LEVEL · 2/4 in 65±4lb✗ MARK · 2/4 in 70±3lb✓ DRAW · 1/3 readable peaks against the bias✓ RACE SHAPE · 3/4 pace-on✗ PACE/STYLE · 1/4 prominent✓ FRESHNESS · 2/4 15-45d✓ SEASON · 2/4 autumn/summer✓ FIELD SIZE · 2/4 mid (8-11)✓ WEIGHT · 4/4 in 9-5±4lb✓ HEADGEAR · 4/4 cheekpieces✓ YARD 14D · 3/4 cold✓ JOCKEY · 2/4 peaks under today's rider✗ MARKET · 2/4 fancied
ΔMARK +5HIDDEN PEAK · BSP 17.0
sectional signature · fsp 98.1% avg over 3 timed peaks · pace 3 true · prominent early (1/1)
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 16 rated of 16 in window · 28 career)
84 · 04 Jun 26 · Hamilton Park 6.0f · High track · Good · C5 hcp · OR 70 · 9-9 · cheekpieces · off 36d · vs median 65 field (9 rated) · fin 1/9 · draw 7/9 (high; day favoured high) · BSP 6.0 fancied · true-run, fsp 94.8% · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.37, n 30) · Tom Eaves
82 · 27 Jul 26 · Southwell 6.1f · Mid track · Std (AW) · C5 hcp · OR 75 · 9-9 · cheekpieces · off 53d · vs median 72 field (12 rated) · fin 3/12 · draw 11/12 (high; day favoured high) · BSP 17.0 unfancied · true-run, prominent early, fsp 105.4% · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.00, n 19) · Kevin Stott
78 · 21 Sep 25 · Hamilton Park 6.0f · High track · Gd/Sft · C5 hcp · OR 68 · 9-2 · cheekpieces · off 18d · fin 1/7 · draw 7/7 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 3.3 fancied · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.50, n 47) · Oisin McSweeney
77 · 03 Sep 25 · Hamilton Park 6.0f · High track · Gd/Sft · C6 hcp · OR 61 · 9-5 · cheekpieces · off 9d · vs median 62 field (10 rated) · fin 1/10 · draw 7/10 (mid; day favoured high — against the bias) · BSP 6.6 steady · true-run, fsp 94.2% · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.43, n 30) · Tom Eaves
LIPSINK (IRE)
today · OR 78 · draw 8 (high) · prominent · 34.0 (unfancied) · Alistair Rawlinson · yard 14d normal
12/18
FIT 0.67
from 4 peaks
Much of today matches this horse's best days. For it: it runs its best at big prices — and it's a big price again today, the level of opposition it peaks against and the race looks like being run the way its peaks were — with the track grade, the direction, the trip, the class, the run style, the field size, the weight, the headgear and the rider all matching its peak days. Against: its best has come on different ground; a mark above where it peaks; the draw worked for it at its peaks and is against it today; a different freshness pattern to its peaks. Its best recent run came at BSP 55.0 — the market never saw it coming.
✗ GOING/SURF · 3/4 AW✓ TRACK · 1/4 Elite-tier · today High (#16)✓ HANDED · 2/4 left/right✓ TRIP · 4/4 in 6.0f±220y✓ CLASS · 2/4 C4/C5✓ LEVEL · 4/4 in 74±4lb✗ MARK · 2/4 in 74±3lb✗ DRAW · 3/3 readable peaks with the bias✓ RACE SHAPE · 4/4 pace-on✓ PACE/STYLE · 1/4 prominent✗ FRESHNESS · 2/4 <=14d✗ SEASON · 3/4 autumn✓ FIELD SIZE · 3/4 mid (8-11)✓ WEIGHT · 4/4 in 9-8±4lb✓ HEADGEAR · 4/4 cheekpieces✗ YARD 14D · 3/4 hot✓ JOCKEY · 1/4 peaks under today's rider✓ MARKET · 2/4 unfancied
ΔMARK +4HIDDEN PEAK · BSP 55.0
sectional signature · fsp 99.9% avg over 4 timed peaks · pace 4 true · prominent early (1/1)
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 17 rated of 17 in window · 32 career)
87 · 27 Oct 25 · Wolverhampton 6.1f · Lower track · Slow (AW) · C5 hcp · OR 74 · 9-8 · cheekpieces · off 9d · vs median 74 field (7 rated) · fin 1/7 · draw 6/7 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 5.3 fancied · true-run, fsp 103.3% · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.17, n 26) · Jack Dace
85 · 12 Jun 26 · Sandown Park 5.0f · Elite track · Good · C4 hcp · OR 78 · 9-7 · cheekpieces · off 218d · vs median 76 field (9 rated) · fin 2/9 · draw 4/9 (mid; day favoured mid) · BSP 55.0 unfancied · true-run, prominent early, fsp 97.8% · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.38, n 20) · Alistair Rawlinson
81 · 15 Oct 25 · Kempton Park 6.0f · High track · Std (AW) · C5 hcp · OR 72 · 9-6 · cheekpieces · off 15d · vs median 73 field (11 rated) · fin 1/11 · draw 9/11 (high; day favoured high) · BSP 31.5 unfancied · true-run, fsp 101.2% · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.70, n 27) · Mason Paetel
81 · 06 Nov 25 · Chelmsford City 6.0f · Mid track · Slow (AW) · C4 hcp · OR 78 · 9-7 · cheekpieces · off 10d · vs median 75 field (10 rated) · fin 4/10 · stall 11 (10 ran) (high; day favoured high) · BSP 11.3 steady · true-run, fsp 97.3% · yard 14d hot (A/E 2.44, n 19) · Jack Dace
ASHEN (IRE)
today · OR 68 · draw 9 (high) · held-up · 5.2 (fancied) · Lauren Young · yard 14d normal
11/18
FIT 0.61
from 4 peaks
Much of today matches this horse's best days. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before, a mark it has peaked off and the race looks like being run the way its peaks were — with the track grade, the direction, freshness, the time of year, the field size, the rider and the market position all matching its peak days. Against: its best has come on different ground; a different trip to its peaks; a different class to its peaks; stronger opposition than its peaks came against. It is 1lb above the mark it peaked off.
✗ GOING/SURF · 2/4 good-side✓ TRACK · 4/4 High-tier · today High (#16)✓ HANDED · 3/4 right✗ TRIP · 3/4 in 7.1f±220y✗ CLASS · 3/4 C5✗ LEVEL · 2/4 in 70±4lb✓ MARK · 3/4 in 67±3lb✓ DRAW · 2/3 readable peaks against the bias✓ RACE SHAPE · 3/4 pace-on✗ PACE/STYLE · 1/4 mid✓ FRESHNESS · 2/4 15-45d/<=14d✓ SEASON · 3/4 summer✓ FIELD SIZE · 3/4 mid (8-11)✗ WEIGHT · 3/4 in 9-9±4lb✓ HEADGEAR · 4/4 no headgear✗ YARD 14D · 2/4 cold✓ JOCKEY · 1/4 peaks under today's rider✓ MARKET · 2/4 fancied/steady
ΔMARK +1
sectional signature · fsp 99.0% avg over 3 timed peaks · pace 3 true · mid early (1/1)
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 15 rated of 15 in window · 17 career)
76 · 07 Aug 26 · Musselburgh 7.1f · High track · Good · C4 hcp · OR 67 · 8-12 · off 14d · vs median 80 field (11 rated) · fin 2/11 · draw 1/11 (low; day favoured low) · BSP 11.5 steady · true-run, mid early, fsp 99.2% · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.41, n 40) · Lauren Young
75 · 11 Jul 26 · Hamilton Park 6.0f · High track · Good · C5 hcp · OR 67 · 9-9 · off 5d · vs median 70 field (5 rated) · fin 2/5 · draw 1/5 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 3.2 fancied · true-run, fsp 97.7% · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.72, n 46) · Rhys Elliott
74 · 19 Jun 26 · Ayr 7.2f · High track · Soft · C5 hcp · OR 67 · 9-7 · off 45d · vs median 66 field (8 rated) · fin 3/8 · draw 5/8 (mid; day favoured high — against the bias) · BSP 3.9 fancied · true-run, fsp 100.0% · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.33, n 34) · Paul Mulrennan
72 · 05 May 25 · Kempton Park 8.0f · High track · Std (AW) · C5 hcp · OR 74 · 9-9 · off 26d · fin 5/9 · stall 10 (9 ran) (high; day favoured mid — against the bias) · BSP 6.1 steady · Kieran Shoemark
SIR GARFIELD (IRE)
today · OR 79 · draw 11 (high) · prominent · 4.9 (fancied) · David Nolan · yard 14d cold
11/18
FIT 0.61 · 1 unknowable
from 4 peaks
Much of today matches this horse's best days. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before, a mark it has peaked off and the race looks like being run the way its peaks were — with the track grade, the trip, the class, the run style, the time of year, the field size, the weight and the headgear all matching its peak days. Against: its best has come on different ground; stronger opposition than its peaks came against; the wrong way round for it; today's rider has never had it at a peak. It is 2lb above the mark it peaked off.
✗ GOING/SURF · 2/4 firm-side/good-side✓ TRACK · 3/4 Elite-tier · today High (#16)✗ HANDED · 3/4 left✓ TRIP · 4/4 in 6.0f±220y✓ CLASS · 4/4 C4✗ LEVEL · 4/4 in 80±4lb✓ MARK · 4/4 in 77±3lb✓ DRAW · 3/3 readable peaks against the bias✓ RACE SHAPE · 4/4 pace-on✓ PACE/STYLE · 1/4 prominent· FRESHNESS · no pattern in peaks✓ SEASON · 3/4 summer✓ FIELD SIZE · 2/4 mid (8-11)✓ WEIGHT · 3/4 in 9-12±4lb✓ HEADGEAR · 4/4 blinkers✗ YARD 14D · 3/4 normal✗ JOCKEY · 0/4 peaks under today's rider✗ MARKET · 2/4 steady
ΔMARK +2
sectional signature · fsp 100.2% avg over 4 timed peaks · pace 3 true, 1 fast · prominent early (1/1)
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 23 rated of 24 in window · 30 career)
91 · 01 Jul 26 · Epsom Downs 6.0f · Elite track · Good · C4 hcp · OR 77 · 9-8 · blinkers · off 84d · vs median 80 field (7 rated) · fin 1/7 · draw 1/7 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 11.0 steady · true-run, fsp 103.0% · yard 14d normal (A/E 1.11, n 16) · Marco Ghiani
90 · 14 Aug 26 · Epsom Downs 6.0f · Elite track · Gd/Frm · C4 hcp · OR 79 · 9-13 · blinkers · off 16d · vs median 78 field (8 rated) · fin 2/8 · draw 5/8 (mid; day favoured low — against the bias) · BSP 2.9 fancied · true-run, prominent early, fsp 102.2% · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.47, n 14) · Jason Hart
84 · 08 Apr 26 · Catterick Bridge 6.0f · Lower track · Good · C4 hcp · OR 74 · 8-12 · blinkers · off 155d · vs median 79 field (9 rated) · fin 1/9 · draw 6/9 (mid; day favoured high — against the bias) · BSP 17.9 unfancied · true-run, fsp 100.1% · yard 14d normal (A/E 1.04, n 12) · Jason Hart
84 · 29 Jul 26 · Goodwood 6.0f · Elite track · Gd/Frm · C4 hcp · OR 80 · 9-12 · blinkers · off 12d · vs median 76 field (26 rated) · fin 8/26 · draw 4/26 (low; day favoured mid — against the bias) · BSP 11.6 steady · fast-run, fsp 95.5% · yard 14d normal (A/E 1.08, n 19) · Jason Hart
STIRRUP CUP
today · OR 73 · draw 1 (low) · held-up · 17.0 (unfancied) · David Allan · yard 14d cold
11/18
FIT 0.61 · 1 unknowable
from 4 peaks
Much of today matches this horse's best days. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before, a mark it has peaked off and the race looks like being run the way its peaks were — with the ground, the track grade, the direction, the trip, the field size, the headgear, yard form and the rider all matching its peak days. Against: a different class to its peaks; stronger opposition than its peaks came against; a different freshness pattern to its peaks; a weight outside where it peaks. Its best recent run came at BSP 34.0 — the market never saw it coming. It is 3lb above the mark it peaked off. Unread: running style.
✓ GOING/SURF · 4/4 soft-side✓ TRACK · 2/4 Hamilton Park✓ HANDED · 3/4 right✓ TRIP · 4/4 in 5.8f±220y✗ CLASS · 4/4 C5✗ LEVEL · 2/4 in 68±4lb✓ MARK · 3/4 in 70±3lb✓ DRAW · 1/4 readable peaks against the bias✓ RACE SHAPE · 2/4 pace-on· PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours prominent (31% of winners)✗ FRESHNESS · 2/4 15-45d✗ SEASON · 2/4 autumn✓ FIELD SIZE · 3/4 mid (8-11)✗ WEIGHT · 3/4 in 9-12±4lb✓ HEADGEAR · 2/4 blinkers+tongue-tie/cheekpieces+tongue-tie✓ YARD 14D · 2/4 cold✓ JOCKEY · 2/4 peaks under today's rider✗ MARKET · 2/4 fancied
ΔMARK +3HIDDEN PEAK · BSP 34.0
sectional signature · fsp 100.3% avg over 2 timed peaks · pace 2 true
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 18 rated of 18 in window · 23 career)
81 · 08 Jun 26 · Carlisle 5.8f · Mid track · Gd/Sft · C5 hcp · OR 70 · 9-12 · cheekpieces+tongue-tie · off 22d · vs median 68 field (8 rated) · fin 1/8 · stall 9 (8 ran) (high; day favoured high) · BSP 3.9 fancied · true-run, fsp 100.3% · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.79, n 91) · Jake Dickson
79 · 10 Apr 26 · Thirsk 6.0f · High track · Gd/Sft · C5 hcp · OR 69 · 9-8 · cheekpieces+tongue-tie · off 102d · vs median 69 field (15 rated) · fin 2/15 · draw 3/15 (low; day favoured high — against the bias) · BSP 34.0 unfancied · true-run, fsp 100.3% · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.00, n 23) · T. Kiely-Marshall
78 · 22 Sep 25 · Hamilton Park 6.0f · High track · Gd/Sft · C5 hcp · OR 62 · 9-1 · blinkers+tongue-tie · off 28d · fin 1/9 · draw 7/9 (high; day favoured high) · BSP 6.2 steady · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.29, n 117) · David Allan
78 · 29 Sep 25 · Hamilton Park 5.0f · High track · Gd/Sft · C5 hcp · OR 68 · 9-10 · blinkers+tongue-tie · off 7d · fin 2/8 · draw 7/8 (high; day favoured high) · BSP 3.0 fancied · yard 14d normal (A/E 1.04, n 115) · David Allan
Much of today matches this horse's best days. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before, a mark it has peaked off and the level of opposition it peaks against — with the track grade, the direction, the trip, the class, the race shape, freshness, the time of year and the field size all matching its peak days. Against: its best has come on different ground; expected to race differently to how it peaked; different headgear to its peaks; a weight outside where it peaks. Its best recent run came at BSP 46.8 — the market never saw it coming. It is 2lb above the mark it peaked off.
✗ GOING/SURF · 2/4 firm-side✓ TRACK · 2/4 High-tier · today High (#16)✓ HANDED · 3/4 right✓ TRIP · 4/4 in 6.0f±220y✓ CLASS · 3/4 C4✓ LEVEL · 2/4 in 76±4lb✓ MARK · 2/4 in 75±3lb✓ DRAW · 2/4 readable peaks against the bias✓ RACE SHAPE · 2/4 pace-on✗ PACE/STYLE · 1/4 prominent✓ FRESHNESS · 2/4 15-45d/<=14d✓ SEASON · 2/4 spring/summer✓ FIELD SIZE · 2/4 big (12+)/mid (8-11)✗ WEIGHT · 4/4 in 9-4±4lb✗ HEADGEAR · 3/4 blinkers· YARD 14D · 1/4 hot✗ JOCKEY · 0/4 peaks under today's rider✗ MARKET · 2/4 unfancied
ΔMARK +2HIDDEN PEAK · BSP 46.8
sectional signature · fsp 97.8% avg over 2 timed peaks · pace 1 fast, 1 true · prominent early (1/1)
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 26 rated of 27 in window · 49 career)
87 · 29 Jul 26 · Goodwood 6.0f · Elite track · Gd/Frm · C4 hcp · OR 75 · 9-7 · visor · off 18d · vs median 76 field (26 rated) · fin 3/26 · draw 16/26 (mid; day favoured mid) · BSP 46.8 unfancied · fast-run, prominent early, fsp 96.2% · Ray Dawson
86 · 13 Apr 26 · Leicester 6.0f · Lower track · Good · C5 hcp · OR 73 · 9-7 · blinkers · off 17d · fin 1/9 · draw 2/9 (low; day favoured mid — against the bias) · BSP 3.0 fancied · Ray Dawson
84 · 16 May 26 · Doncaster 6.0f · High track · Gd/Sft · C4 hcp · OR 80 · 9-4 · blinkers · off 8d · vs median 80 field (12 rated) · fin 3/12 · draw 9/12 (high; day favoured low — against the bias) · BSP 27.5 unfancied · true-run, fsp 99.4% · yard 14d hot (A/E 2.30, n 11) · Luke Morris
81 · 27 Aug 24 · Ripon 6.0f · High track · Gd/Frm · C4 hcp · OR 68 · 9-2 · blinkers · off 10d · fin 1/11 · stall 12 (11 ran) (high; day favoured high) · BSP 8.2 steady · Dale Swift
JANNAS JOURNEY (IRE)
today · OR 78 · draw 3 (low) · held-up · 11.5 (steady) · Rhys Elliott · yard 14d normal
10/18
FIT 0.56 · 1 unknowable
from 4 peaks
Today matches this horse's best days in places. For it: a mark it has peaked off, the level of opposition it peaks against and the race looks like being run the way its peaks were — with the ground, the track grade, the direction, the class, freshness and the weight all matching its peak days. Against: a different trip to its peaks; the wrong side of the draw; the wrong time of year against its peaks; a different field size to its peaks. It is 1lb above the mark it peaked off. Unread: running style.
✓ GOING/SURF · 2/4 good-side/soft-side✓ TRACK · 3/4 High-tier · today High (#16)✓ HANDED · 3/4 right✗ TRIP · 3/4 in 7.2f±220y✓ CLASS · 2/4 C3/C4✓ LEVEL · 1/4 in 75±4lb✓ MARK · 2/4 in 77±3lb✗ DRAW · 1/1 high✓ RACE SHAPE · 1/4 pace-on· PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours prominent (31% of winners)✓ FRESHNESS · 3/4 <=14d✗ SEASON · 3/4 autumn✗ FIELD SIZE · 3/4 small (<=7)✓ WEIGHT · 4/4 in 9-10±4lb✓ HEADGEAR · 4/4 no headgear✗ YARD 14D · 2/4 hot✗ JOCKEY · 0/4 peaks under today's rider✗ MARKET · 4/4 fancied
ΔMARK +1
sectional signature · fsp 102.1% avg over 1 timed peak · pace 1 true
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 29 rated of 29 in window · 29 career)
90 · 20 Sep 25 · Ayr 7.2f · High track · Soft · C4 hcp · OR 77 · 9-10 · off 7d · fin 1/11 · stall 12 (11 ran) (high; no day edge) · BSP 6.0 fancied · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.47, n 48) · David Egan
89 · 13 Oct 25 · Musselburgh 7.1f · High track · Good · C3 hcp · OR 85 · 9-10 · off 3d · fin 2/6 · draw 5/6 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 2.9 fancied · yard 14d normal (A/E 1.04, n 45) · Cam Hardie
88 · 29 Sep 25 · Hamilton Park 9.2f · High track · Gd/Sft · C3 hcp · OR 85 · 9-9 · off 9d · fin 3/7 · draw 7/7 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 5.9 fancied · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.26, n 41) · Daniel Tudhope
88 · 04 Jul 26 · Carlisle 7.8f · Mid track · Good · C4 hcp · OR 76 · 9-7 · off 22d · vs median 75 field (7 rated) · fin 1/7 · draw 7/7 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 4.7 fancied · true-run, fsp 102.1% · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.62, n 38) · Lauren Young
Today matches this horse's best days in places. For it: a mark it has peaked off, it runs its best at big prices — and it's a big price again today and the race looks like being run the way its peaks were — with the track grade, the trip, the time of year, the field size and the rider all matching its peak days. Against: a different class to its peaks; stronger opposition than its peaks came against; the draw worked for it at its peaks and is against it today; expected to race differently to how it peaked. Its best recent run came at BSP 75.0 — the market never saw it coming. Unread: the ground.
· GOING/SURF · no pattern in peaks✓ TRACK · 2/4 High-tier · today High (#16)✗ HANDED · 4/4 left✓ TRIP · 4/4 in 6.0f±220y✗ CLASS · 2/4 C5/C6✗ LEVEL · 2/4 in 64±4lb✓ MARK · 2/2 in 65±3lb✗ DRAW · 2/4 readable peaks with the bias✓ RACE SHAPE · 2/4 pace-on✗ PACE/STYLE · 1/4 mid✗ FRESHNESS · 3/4 15-45d✓ SEASON · 2/4 autumn/summer✓ FIELD SIZE · 2/4 big (12+)/mid (8-11)✗ WEIGHT · 2/4 in 9-2±4lb✓ HEADGEAR · 4/4 no headgear✗ YARD 14D · 2/4 hot✓ JOCKEY · 1/4 peaks under today's rider✓ MARKET · 2/4 unfancied
ΔMARK -2HIDDEN PEAK · BSP 75.0
sectional signature · fsp 98.4% avg over 2 timed peaks · pace 2 true · mid early (1/1)
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 10 rated of 11 in window · 11 career)
70 · 02 Oct 25 · Chelmsford City 6.0f · Mid track · Slow (AW) · C5 non-hcp · 9-2 · off 21d · fin 2/13 · draw 13/13 (high; no day edge) · BSP 5.8 fancied · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.44, n 13) · Liam Wright
69 · 17 Oct 25 · Haydock Park 6.0f · Elite track · Gd/Sft · C5 non-hcp · 9-2 · off 15d · fin 3/11 · draw 11/11 (high; day favoured high) · BSP 7.3 steady · Liam Wright
69 · 13 Jul 26 · Ayr 6.0f · High track · Gd/Frm · C6 hcp · OR 65 · 9-10 · off 7d · vs median 64 field (8 rated) · fin 3/8 · draw 2/8 (low; no day edge) · BSP 75.0 unfancied · true-run, fsp 97.7% · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.17, n 10) · David Allan
69 · 08 Aug 26 · Ayr 6.0f · High track · Good · C6 hcp · OR 62 · 9-7 · off 19d · vs median 62 field (13 rated) · fin 2/13 · draw 11/13 (high; day favoured high) · BSP 42.0 unfancied · true-run, mid early, fsp 99.1% · Greg Fairley
HUNKY DORY
today · OR 80 · draw 7 (mid) · prominent · 28.0 (unfancied) · T. Kiely-Marshall · yard 14d normal
8/18
FIT 0.44 · 2 unknowable
from 4 peaks
Today matches this horse's best days in places. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before, the level of opposition it peaks against and the race looks like being run the way its peaks were — with the track grade, the trip, the class, the field size and the headgear all matching its peak days. Against: its best has come on different ground; a mark above where it peaks; a different freshness pattern to its peaks; a weight outside where it peaks. Unread: running style.
✗ GOING/SURF · 4/4 AW✓ TRACK · 2/4 High-tier · today High (#16)✗ HANDED · 3/4 left✓ TRIP · 4/4 in 6.1f±220y✓ CLASS · 2/4 C4/C5✓ LEVEL · 2/4 in 77±4lb✗ MARK · 3/4 in 73±3lb✓ DRAW · 1/3 readable peaks against the bias✓ RACE SHAPE · 2/4 pace-on· PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours prominent (31% of winners)✗ FRESHNESS · 4/4 15-45d✗ SEASON · 2/4 spring/winter✓ FIELD SIZE · 3/4 mid (8-11)✗ WEIGHT · 4/4 in 9-5±4lb✓ HEADGEAR · 3/4 cheekpieces· YARD 14D · no pattern in peaks✗ JOCKEY · 0/4 peaks under today's rider✗ MARKET · 3/4 fancied
ΔMARK +4
sectional signature · fsp 103.2% avg over 2 timed peaks · pace 2 true
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 18 rated of 18 in window · 19 career)
89 · 10 Apr 26 · Wolverhampton 6.1f · Lower track · Std (AW) · C4 hcp · OR 76 · 9-5 · cheekpieces · off 15d · vs median 77 field (7 rated) · fin 1/7 · draw 6/7 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 5.7 fancied · true-run, fsp 102.5% · Hollie Doyle
87 · 20 May 26 · Kempton Park 6.0f · High track · Slow (AW) · C4 hcp · OR 83 · 9-7 · cheekpieces · off 33d · vs median 80 field (10 rated) · fin 6/10 · stall 11 (10 ran) (high; day favoured mid — against the bias) · BSP 6.2 steady · true-run, fsp 103.9% · Oisin Murphy
86 · 28 Dec 25 · Southwell 6.1f · Mid track · Std (AW) · C5 hcp · OR 73 · 9-7 · cheekpieces · off 18d · fin 1/8 · draw 8/8 (high; day favoured high) · BSP 2.8 fancied · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.63, n 20) · Alistair Rawlinson
82 · 02 Dec 25 · Newcastle 6.0f · High track · Std (AW) · C5 hcp · OR 71 · 9-7 · off 41d · fin 2/11 · draw 9/11 (high; day favoured high) · BSP 4.9 fancied · yard 14d normal (A/E 0.93, n 23) · Alistair Rawlinson
ABDUCTION (FR)
today · OR 74 · draw 5 (mid) · held-up · 13.0 (steady) · Jake Dickson · yard 14d normal
5/18
FIT 0.28 · 3 unknowable
from 4 peaks
Only parts of today look like this horse's best days. For it: the track grade, the trip, the class, the weight and the market position match its peak days. Against: its best has come on different ground; a mark above where it peaks; the draw worked for it at its peaks and is against it today; a different freshness pattern to its peaks. Unread: running style.
✗ GOING/SURF · 2/4 good-side✓ TRACK · 3/4 High-tier · today High (#16)✗ HANDED · 3/4 left✓ TRIP · 4/4 in 7.0f±220y✓ CLASS · 4/4 C4· LEVEL · no peak data✗ MARK · 4/4 in 79±3lb✗ DRAW · 1/3 readable peaks with the bias· RACE SHAPE · no peak data· PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours prominent (31% of winners)✗ FRESHNESS · 4/4 <=14d✗ SEASON · 2/4 autumn✗ FIELD SIZE · 2/4 big (12+)✓ WEIGHT · 3/4 in 9-6±4lb✗ HEADGEAR · 4/4 visor✗ YARD 14D · 2/4 cold/hot✗ JOCKEY · 0/4 peaks under today's rider✓ MARKET · 2/4 fancied/steady
ΔMARK -5
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 32 rated of 33 in window · 51 career)
87 · 10 Oct 24 · Ayr 6.0f · High track · Good · C4 hcp · OR 79 · 9-6 · visor · off 9d · fin 2/11 · draw 2/11 (low; no day edge) · BSP 6.4 steady · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.41, n 14) · Paul Mulrennan
87 · 15 Jun 25 · Hamilton Park 6.0f · High track · Gd/Sft · C4 hcp · OR 76 · 9-6 · visor · off 8d · fin 1/14 · draw 7/14 (mid; no day edge) · BSP 9.9 steady · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.76, n 25) · Shane Gray
85 · 01 Oct 24 · Ayr 7.2f · High track · Good · C4 hcp · OR 79 · 9-13 · visor · off 10d · fin 2/6 · draw 6/6 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 3.6 fancied · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.49, n 36) · Paul Mulrennan
85 · 10 May 25 · Haydock Park 7.0f · Elite track · Gd/Frm · C4 hcp · OR 76 · 9-5 · visor · off 8d · fin 2/12 · draw 1/12 (low; day favoured low) · BSP 6.0 fancied · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.16, n 31) · Tom Marquand
SHOOT TO KILL (IRE)
today · OR 74 · draw 4 (low) · front · 17.5 (unfancied) · Shane Gray
4/18
FIT 0.22 · 6 unknowable
from 4 peaks
Only parts of today look like this horse's best days. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before and the freshness pattern of its peaks — with the trip and the weight all matching its peak days. Against: its best has come on different ground; a different type of track to its peaks; a mark above where it peaks; different headgear to its peaks. Unread: running style.
✗ GOING/SURF · 3/4 AW✗ TRACK · 3/4 Dundalk· HANDED · no peak data✓ TRIP · 4/4 in 7.0f±220y· CLASS · no pattern in peaks· LEVEL · no peak data✗ MARK · 3/4 in 78±3lb✓ DRAW · 1/4 readable peaks against the bias· RACE SHAPE · no peak data· PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours prominent (31% of winners)✓ FRESHNESS · 2/4 15-45d✗ SEASON · 2/4 spring/winter✗ FIELD SIZE · 3/4 big (12+)✓ WEIGHT · 4/4 in 9-11±4lb✗ HEADGEAR · 4/4 no headgear· YARD 14D · 1/4 hot✗ JOCKEY · 0/4 peaks under today's rider✗ MARKET · 2/4 fancied/steady
ΔMARK -4
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 22 rated of 23 in window · 40 career)
85 · 21 Mar 25 · Dundalk 7.0f · Slow (AW) · hcp · OR 78 · 9-7 · off 21d · fin 2/8 · draw 1/8 (low; no day edge) · BSP 5.3 fancied · yard 14d hot (A/E 2.28, n 10) · J. Kearney
85 · 12 May 25 · Roscommon 7.5f · Good · hcp · OR 80 · 10-0 · off 52d · fin 1/14 · draw 3/14 (low; day favoured low) · BSP 14.7 steady · J. Kearney
84 · 10 Jan 25 · Dundalk 7.0f · Slow (AW) · C3 hcp · OR 78 · 9-11 · off 21d · fin 2/13 · draw 10/13 (high; day favoured low — against the bias) · BSP 4.1 fancied · J. Kearney
83 · 20 Dec 24 · Dundalk 7.0f · Slow (AW) · C4 hcp · OR 74 · 10-1 · off 119d · fin 1/14 · stall 16 (14 ran) (high; no day edge) · BSP 7.3 steady · J. Kearney
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 45% · miss 37% · n=686
ON THE MEASURED READS
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. WRECK IT RYLEY (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge SIR GARFIELD (IRE) lacks: early sectional positions fit the dominant style here.
ON RACE SHAPE
JANNAS JOURNEY (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
Two lenses, two questions — the reads ask who measures closest; the shape asks who profits if the race falls apart.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours. Measured: editorial-family reads sit in the generic bucket that grades 42.0% hit v 48.1% for horse-specific measured reads (C7 gate) — argument, weighted below the measurements.
4 / 4Horse Profilesevery runner in full — career, conditions, clock and market
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1SIR GARFIELD (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 11 · OR 79 · David Nolan / John & Sean Quinn
MARKET backed 10 → 4.9 · the market rates it a 20% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−
90.0FORMLAB FIGURE
71SPEED FIGURE · #3 OF 11 READ
5.42
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 18% chance
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 3pts clear of the next, backed since the morning; concedes ~2.1L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, without over-committing — but holds one pace late, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
90.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 91
Speed Figure (FSF)
70 latest (14 Aug 26) · best 71 (last 6)
Official mark (OR)
79 · last won off 77
Record at today's distance
7 wins from 30 tries · beats market expectation (1.52)
Days since last run
7
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.3s · faster than its field on the clock Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 21 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
V course clockclosing speed 99.0% v course avg 99.3% (−0.3) · top speed 42.1mph v 40.9 (+1.3)
Eye-catcherlast run (BSP 2.88): traded 1.19 in-play and was beaten — the visible hard-luck profile is historically OVERBET next start
Stride-fitcareer stride 7.63m (n 26) v course norm 7.43m (LONG-STRIDE track) — action matches the extreme
Course & fixturewon the corresponding August race here (2025, off 74) — 2 career wins at this track
Receiptslast read Epsom Downs 14 Aug: figure ✓ · pace ≈ · connections ✓ · h2h ✓(✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75graded 41% · miss 39% · n=11575
Speed · vs its fields6th of 11
-0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 11
-0.04s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 3 of 6
Finish · finishing power4th of 10
57pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 99.0% is vs its own average · −0.6 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.02× chance (13,862 runs)
Stride length1st of 11
7.91 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.454 m on this surface (+0.46 m) · +0.44 m vs today’s field — that band wins 1.03× chance at tracks of this shape (2,623 runs)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
14 Aug 26Epsom Downs6fGd/Frm42nd90707978.5True43.6+0.10102.2+0.03
4 Nov 25Redcar7fGood57th72587573Fast early41.3+0.2094.8-0.10
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
14 Aug 263.302.88STABLE1st of 82nd£99.8k£241k41%1.19beaten from a winning position
29 Jul 2612.9011.55STABLE2nd of 268th£27.9k£379k7%8.20underran the market
17 Jul 267.538.17STABLE5th of 76th£26.1k£210k12%6.00ran to expectation
1 Jul 2610.9611.00STABLE6th of 71st£18.3k£206k9%8.60outran the market
8 Apr 2616.0817.89DRIFT8th of 91st£7.5k£163k5%16.00outran the market
4 Nov 2522.0627.00DRIFT9th of 147th£3.9k£144k3%3.00ran to expectation
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the house steam/drift read between them. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · miss 45% · n=2631 · null 50%
WRECK IT RYLEY (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 1.1L behind on today's terms · reverses
29 Jul 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 8th vs 3rd, 2.35L behind · OR 80 v 75 · race median 76 (today 75)
JANNAS JOURNEY (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
5 Jun 25 · 6f · Good — finished 1st vs 8th, 6.75L ahead · OR 67 v 52 · race median 62 (today 75) · stale — 15m ago, not in the read
ABDUCTION (FR) · 1 meeting · n/a
15 Jun 25 · 6f · Gd/Sft — finished 2nd vs 1st, 0.3L behind · OR 72 v 76 · race median 75 (today 75) · stale — 14m ago, not in the read
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — reverses vs 1 rival(s) met (-1.1L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs ASHEN (IRE) (read through QUEST FOR FUN, CATALYSE, ONE MORE DREAM, LORD ABAMA)≈ -4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs LIPSINK (IRE) (read through CHARLIE MASON, SANDSCREENDELIVERD, SILVER WRAITH, ON EDGE)≈ +4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs WHISKEY KISSES (IRE) (read through ABERAMA GOLD, ETERNAL SUNSHINE, TINTO, TAYGAR)≈ +4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs BELSITO (GER) (read through THE GOOD BISCUIT, TIRIAC, DANZAN, HAVANA RUM)≈ -2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (90.0)Proven over the trip (30 tries, beats market expectation at 1.52)NEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.19 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 7 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (2 from 4 here)Runs Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“quickly away, chased leader, led final ½f, headed close home”
#2WRECK IT RYLEY (IRE)MID
DRAW 2 · OR 77 · Cieren Fallon / Alan Brown
MARKET 5.9 · the market rates it a 17% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−
87.0FORMLAB FIGURE
69SPEED FIGURE · =6 OF 11 READ
16.06
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 6% chance
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 3pts off the top, early sectional positions fit the dominant style here; held up without the late gear (2nd of 10 on late speed), races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
87.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 87
Speed Figure (FSF)
67 latest (29 Jul 26) · best 69 (last 6)
Official mark (OR)
77 · last won off 73
Record at today's distance
6 wins from 48 tries · beats market expectation (1.07)
Days since last run
23
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 97.6% (one-paced late)
Course fit today
reads against today's track (finishing profile vs what this course demands)
Course scale · class context
drops 13 places on the course scale (GOODWOOD 3rd → HAMILTON PARK 16th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Field strength · class context
Sits 2lb above today's median (OR 77 v field 75) · a near-level field move (-1lb) on last time (GOODWOOD · 29 Jul 26)
Headgear
Visor
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
Career sheet · last 18 months · 23 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant8 May 26: 62 · 16 May 26: 65 · 6 Jun 26: 53 · 27 Jun 26: 64 · 11 Jul 26: 69 · 29 Jul 26: 67
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Alan Brown · 451 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.9 on the exchange
Signature angle: with a runner returning from 60+ days off
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 2 of 5 reverse in 2026
At this time of year (Q3)6/896.7%0.970/270.0%0.78
Over 5-6f trips ⇆17/15111.3%1.111/372.7%0.88
Changing jockey from the last run ✦16/2067.8%0.943/853.5%0.88
On turf ⇆10/1178.5%1.093/684.4%0.89
Coming back after 15 to 45 days10/1636.1%0.883/634.8%0.95
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 87 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand
The rider
Cieren Fallon · last 14 days: 9/51· at Hamilton Park: A/E 0.96 (n9, raw 0.81)· notable booking — a top rider for a yard he seldom rides for
ConsensusFIG 2READ 2VAL 2POW 2MKT 34 of 5 instruments have him top-2
Clock readWATCH — last run ran better than the bare result on a pace-adjusted sectional read · UPGRADE → note today
LEAD READLead chance ~2% (model 2% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 10 read)
Market path55.9(06:40→13:00, drifting, 17 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 97.6% v course avg 99.3% (−1.7) · top speed 41.9mph v 40.9 (+1.0)
Stride-fitcareer stride 7.37m (n 30) v course norm 7.43m (LONG-STRIDE track) — FITS the track
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75graded 41% · miss 39% · n=11575
Speed · vs its fields5th of 11
+0.03 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 11
-0.07s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 2 of 5
Finish · finishing power2nd of 10
60pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 97.6% is vs its own average · −2.0 vs today’s field — that band wins 0.79× chance (9,180 runs)
Stride length7th of 11
7.42 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.454 m on this surface (−0.03 m) · about level with today’s field (−0.05 m)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26York7f192yGood39th73647983True40.3+0.28100.1-0.03
6 Jun 26Musselburgh7f15yGood48th53538079True40.1-0.0599.7-0.85
16 May 26Doncaster6fGd/Sft43rd84658080True40.9-0.0299.4+0.17
8 May 26Ripon6fGood48th43628282True41.3-0.2992.7—
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
29 Jul 2654.2246.82STABLE16th of 263rd£7.1k£379k2%32.00outran the market
11 Jul 2680.3780.46STABLE16th of 196th£3.0k£239k1%26.00outran the market
27 Jun 26106.18100.00STABLE13th of 149th£4.9k£346k1%32.00outran the market
6 Jun 2620.8022.00STABLE6th of 98th£5.4k£190k3%17.00ran to expectation
16 May 2627.8027.46STABLE10th of 123rd£5.6k£156k4%55.00outran the market
8 May 2615.0014.68STABLE7th of 98th£6.6k£123k5%11.44ran to expectation
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the house steam/drift read between them. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
6 Jun 26 · 7f15y · Good — finished 8th vs 7th, 0.3L behind · OR 80 v 75 · race median 79 (today 75)
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — confirms vs 2 rival(s) met (+0.9L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs LIPSINK (IRE) (read through GOOD EARTH, SAVANNAH SMILES, SPRING BLOOM, RAY VONN)≈ +4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs ASHEN (IRE) (read through MISTER SOX, FORTAMOUR, YES I'M MALI, QUEST FOR FUN)≈ -3L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs WHISKEY KISSES (IRE) (read through NOVAMAY, IMPRESSOR)≈ +2.5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs STIRRUP CUP (read through VALENTINE CATCHER, YES I'M MALI, THE GOOD BISCUIT, EMPEROR'S SON)≈ -1L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
4lb above his last winning mark (77 today vs 73)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (87.0)BOOKING UPGRADE — 12m top-4 jockey booked, only 0 ride(s) for this yard in 12m, after non-elite riders on the horse: an intent read (context only,…Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“in touch, shaken up 3f out, challenged 2f out, led briefly inside final 100 yds, kept on”
#3LIPSINK (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 8 · OR 78 · Alistair Rawlinson / Michael Appleby
MARKET 34 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
85.0FORMLAB FIGURE
70SPEED FIGURE · =4 OF 11 READ
11.97
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 8% chance
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 5pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; concedes ~1.5L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, at the tempo that wins here — but empties in the final 2f, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
85.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 87
Speed Figure (FSF)
70 latest (12 Jun 26)
Official mark (OR)
78 · last won off 74
Record at today's distance
6 wins from 32 tries · beats market expectation (1.42)
Days since last run
70
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.1s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races front-runner
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant30 Sep 25: 66 · 15 Oct 25: 67 · 18 Oct 25: 64 · 27 Oct 25: 58 · 6 Nov 25: 63 · 12 Jun 26: 70
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Michael Appleby · 1794 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: in fields of 8-11
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 1 of 1 reverse in 2026
With a runner returning from 60+ days off ⇆9/1306.9%0.827/4615.2%1.14
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 2 of 3 reverse in 2026
Coming back after 46 to 90 days ⇆13/10212.7%1.102/267.7%0.85
In fields of 8-11 ✦86/80610.7%0.9710/1815.5%0.67
At this time of year (Q3) ⇆49/35114.0%1.186/916.6%0.82
Too few runners to read reliably
At Hamilton Park ⇆(small sample)1/333.3%1.050/20.0%0.98
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 87 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand
The rider
Alistair Rawlinson · last 14 days: 0/9· at Hamilton Park: A/E 1.11 (n8, raw 2.33)· with this yard: A/E 1.06 (n622, raw 1.07)
ConsensusFIG 3READ 5VAL 5POW 8MKT 100 of 5 instruments have him top-2
PACE FITCLASH — forward type into a projected pace collapse · clash runners have run 1.3 places worse than ranked (213-race gate)
LEAD READLead chance ~34% (model 42% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 10 read)
Market path2734(06:40→13:00, drifting, 17 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 98.1% v course avg 99.3% (−1.2) · top speed 40.0mph v 40.9 (−0.9)
Stride-fitcareer stride 7.45m (n 21) v course norm 7.43m (LONG-STRIDE track) — FITS the track
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75graded 41% · miss 39% · n=11575
Speed · vs its fields7th of 11
-0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 11
-0.02s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 5 of 6
Finish · finishing power8th of 10
51pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 98.1% is vs its own average · −1.5 vs today’s field — that band wins 0.95× chance (9,444 runs)
Stride length10th of 11
7.28 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.454 m on this surface (−0.17 m) · −0.19 m vs today’s field — that band wins 0.91× chance at tracks of this shape (2,642 runs)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
12 Jun 26Sandown Park5f10yGood42nd85707876True38.5+0.0697.8-0.01
6 Nov 25Chelmsford City6fSlow44th81637875True41.3-0.2597.3-0.13
27 Oct 25Wolverhampton6f20ySlow51st87587474True40.1+0.00103.3+0.04
15 Oct 25Kempton Park6fStd51st81677273True39.7-0.28101.2+0.00
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
12 Jun 2634.9555.00DRIFT9th of 92nd£4.1k£211k2%4.90outran the market
6 Nov 259.8411.29DRIFT5th of 104th£9.7k£126k8%6.80ran to expectation
27 Oct 253.655.32DRIFT3rd of 71st£24.6k£137k18%4.90ran to expectation
15 Oct 2514.6731.47DRIFT10th of 111st£4.1k£126k3%60.00outran the market
30 Sep 2512.2312.96STABLE5th of 145th£9.1k£129k7%7.20ran to expectation
12 Sep 258.006.60STABLE2nd of 97th£38.6k£294k13%3.85underran the market
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the house steam/drift read between them. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · miss 45% · n=2631 · null 50%
BELSITO (GER) · 1 meeting · n/a
19 Jul 24 · 6f18y · Good — finished 3rd vs 8th, 12.5L ahead · OR 69 v 66 · race median 67.5 (today 75) · stale — 25m ago, not in the read
Read through a common rival
vs WRECK IT RYLEY (IRE) (read through GOOD EARTH, SAVANNAH SMILES, SPRING BLOOM, RAY VONN)≈ -4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs SIR GARFIELD (IRE) (read through CHARLIE MASON, SANDSCREENDELIVERD, SILVER WRAITH, ON EDGE)≈ -4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs ABDUCTION (FR) (read through BEAUTY CHOICE, MONSIEUR KODI, HARRY'S HALO, AZURE ZAIN)≈ -2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs HUNKY DORY (read through STRIKE, KISS AND RUN, JAX EDGE, JUSTCALLMEPETE)≈ +2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
4lb above his last winning mark (78 today vs 74)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (85.0)Proven over the trip (32 tries, beats market expectation at 1.42)Jockey goes well at this track (2.33x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
4th on the figures, 7pts off the top, proven on the ground; the 5th-strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
83.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 95
Speed Figure (FSF)
69 latest (27 Jul 26)
Official mark (OR)
74 · last won off 74
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 47 tries · below market expectation (0.83)
Days since last run
25
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.29% (one-paced late)
Course fit today
no strong lean either way
Field strength · class context
Sits 1lb below today's median (OR 74 v field 75) · a field 3lb stronger than last time (median 72 then) (AYR · 27 Jul 26)
Class Reversion Watch[P42] · A PATTERN WE TRACK · NOT A TIP
This horse has shown far more ability in the past than its recent form suggests. Three things line up today: its best-ever rating is well above what it is running to now, the handicapper has dropped it back to a mark it has already proved it can win from, and the sectional clock says the raw speed is still there.
Best ever · vs now
TFR 95 at its peak · running to 83 now
a 12pt gap between what it HAS done and what it is CURRENTLY doing
The handicapper's mark
74 — the exact mark it last WON from
it has already won a race from this very mark — the handicapper has given it a real chance
Raw speed
3rd fastest of 11 here
on recorded sectional times against the fields it has met — the engine has not gone
Why it's flagged: in 2024-25, horses fitting this exact pattern won roughly 13% of the time at an average Betfair price near 16.0 — occasional big-priced winners. The 2026 sample is still too small to say whether that holds, so every one is tracked in The Record. This is background, not a selection — only the price decides whether one is ever worth an interest.
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
Career sheet · last 18 months · 28 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant17 May 26: 62 · 6 Jun 26: 53 · 20 Jun 26: 69 · 30 Jun 26: 69 · 6 Jul 26: 68 · 27 Jul 26: 69
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jim Goldie · 1670 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Paul Mulrennan
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 3 of 3 reverse in 2026
Back at their last winning mark ⇆7/3917.9%1.141/234.3%0.87
Over 5-6f trips ⇆75/45716.4%1.3213/1926.8%0.71
At this time of year (Q3) ⇆74/44416.7%1.2513/1598.2%0.75
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 95 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand
The rider
Jake Dickson · last 14 days: 2/17· at Hamilton Park: A/E 1.05 (n14, raw 1.35)· with this yard: A/E 0.89 (n12, raw 0)
ConsensusFIG 4READ 6VAL 6POW 5MKT 60 of 5 instruments have him top-2
Clock readWATCH — last run ran better than the bare result on a pace-adjusted sectional read · UPGRADE → note today
PACE FITFIT — hold-up type with the projected pace collapse in his favour · fit runners beat their published rank by +0.4 places (213-race gate)
LEAD READLead chance ~2% (model 2% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 10 read)
Market path1113(06:40→13:00, drifting, 17 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 100.3% v course avg 99.3% (+1.0) · top speed 42.9mph v 40.9 (+2.0)
Stride-fitcareer stride 7.32m (n 40) v course norm 7.43m (LONG-STRIDE track) — FITS the track
Course form1 career win at this track
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75graded 41% · miss 39% · n=11575
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 11
+0.07 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 11
+0.26s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · finishing power5th of 10
53pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 100.3% is vs its own average · +0.7 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.02× chance (13,862 runs)
Stride length2nd of 11
7.60 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.454 m on this surface (+0.15 m) · +0.13 m vs today’s field — that band wins 1.03× chance at tracks of this shape (2,623 runs)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 Jun 26Musselburgh7f15yGd/Frm43rd82697472True40.4+0.70103.5+0.46
20 Jun 26Ayr6fSoft43rd80697476True41.0-0.2499.2+0.30
6 Jun 26Musselburgh7f15yGood47th48537579True39.6-0.6398.8+0.47
17 May 26Hamilton Park6fGood47th77627677True44.7+0.2995.5+0.20
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
27 Jul 268.576.20STABLE4th of 52nd£29.9k£206k15%4.50ran to expectation
6 Jul 265.285.60STABLE2nd of 113rd£48.0k£250k19%1.17beaten from a winning position
30 Jun 2610.2818.50DRIFT6th of 83rd£10.6k£193k5%2.94outran the market
20 Jun 2617.1713.00STABLE7th of 143rd£8.6k£153k6%13.00outran the market
6 Jun 2611.8612.50STABLE5th of 97th£13.0k£190k7%16.00ran to expectation
17 May 2620.9947.29DRIFT10th of 137th£5.5k£245k2%30.00outran the market
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the house steam/drift read between them. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
6 Jul 26 · 7f50y · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 4th, 1L ahead · OR 74 v 67 · race median 67 (today 75)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — CONFIRMS strongly vs 5 rival(s) met (+4.7L adj, 6 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs SHOOT TO KILL (IRE) (read through BLACK STORM, LITTLE EMPIRE)≈ -6.0L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs BELSITO (GER) (read through KELPIE GREY, PARISIAC, THE GOOD BISCUIT, IRIS DANCER)≈ -3L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs LIPSINK (IRE) (read through BEAUTY CHOICE, MONSIEUR KODI, HARRY'S HALO, AZURE ZAIN)≈ +2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs HUNKY DORY (read through NATIVE INSTINCT, COUNT PALATINE, PROSPERITAS, ZIGGY'S CONDOR)≈ -1L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayJockey goes well at this track (1.35x market expectation)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 2 here)
LTO comment
“waited with, under pressure under 3f out, kept on well final 1f, just failed”
#5BELSITO (GER)FRONT
DRAW 6 · OR 75 · Tom Eaves / Kevin Ryan
MARKET 12 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−
82.0FORMLAB FIGURE
67SPEED FIGURE · #9 OF 11 READ
13.39
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 7% chance
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 8pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
82.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 84
Speed Figure (FSF)
64 latest (27 Jul 26) · best 67 (last 6)
Official mark (OR)
75 · last won off 70
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 28 tries · beats market expectation (1.11)
Days since last run
25
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Kevin Ryan · 1412 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.9 on the exchange
Signature angle: in fields of 8-11, with a runner returning from 60+ days off
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions · all 1 hold in both windows
In fields of 8-11 ✦61/48112.7%1.0425/14317.5%1.30
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · all 1 hold in both windows
At this time of year (Q3) ✦42/4459.4%0.975/955.3%0.85
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 85 is below the ~87.0 the race demands
The rider
Tom Eaves · last 14 days: 2/32· at Hamilton Park: A/E 1.12 (n69, raw 1.28)· with this yard: A/E 1.13 (n703, raw 1.15)
ConsensusFIG 5READ 8VAL 8POW 6MKT 50 of 5 instruments have him top-2
PACE FITCLASH — forward type into a projected pace collapse · clash runners have run 1.3 places worse than ranked (213-race gate)
LEAD READLead chance ~21% (model 27% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 10 read)
Market path8.612(06:40→13:00, drifting, 17 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 98.6% v course avg 99.3% (−0.7) · top speed 40.7mph v 40.9 (−0.2)
Stride-fitcareer stride 7.77m (n 22) v course norm 7.43m (LONG-STRIDE track) — action matches the extreme
Course form3 career wins at this track
Receiptslast read Southwell 27 Jul: figure ≈ · pace ✗ · connections ✓ · class ≈(✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75graded 41% · miss 39% · n=11575
Speed · vs its fields9th of 11
-0.06 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 11
+0.01s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · finishing power6th of 10
53pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 98.6% is vs its own average · −1.0 vs today’s field — that band wins 0.95× chance (9,444 runs)
Stride length4th of 11
7.55 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.454 m on this surface (+0.10 m) · about level with today’s field (+0.08 m)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
27 Jul 2613.1716.96DRIFT8th of 123rd£7.4k£184k4%8.60outran the market
4 Jun 267.466.00STABLE2nd of 91st£29.8k£218k14%5.40ran to expectation
29 Apr 2612.4518.50DRIFT7th of 84th£10.0k£160k6%10.00outran the market
10 Apr 2611.3713.27DRIFT5th of 1511th£13.3k£174k8%12.00underran the market
6 Oct 2517.0725.00DRIFT7th of 138th£8.5k£244k3%12.00ran to expectation
3 Sep 257.056.60STABLE2nd of 101st£26.8k£211k13%11.50ran to expectation
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the house steam/drift read between them. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-09-03 to 2026-07-27. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · miss 45% · n=2631 · null 50%
LIPSINK (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
19 Jul 24 · 6f18y · Good — finished 8th vs 3rd, 12.5L behind · OR 66 v 69 · race median 67.5 (today 75) · stale — 25m ago, not in the read
WRECK IT RYLEY (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
30 Apr 23 · 5f · Soft — finished 4th vs 9th, 5.5L ahead · OR 74 v 71 · race median 72 (today 75) · stale — 40m ago, not in the read
STIRRUP CUP · 1 meeting≈ 6.4L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
10 Apr 26 · 6f · Gd/Sft — finished 11th vs 2nd, 6.4L behind · OR 71 v 69 · race median 69 (today 75)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-6.4L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs ABDUCTION (FR) (read through KELPIE GREY, PARISIAC, THE GOOD BISCUIT, IRIS DANCER)≈ +3L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs SIR GARFIELD (IRE) (read through THE GOOD BISCUIT, TIRIAC, DANZAN, HAVANA RUM)≈ +2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs JANNAS JOURNEY (IRE) (read through KELPIE GREY, ZIGGY'S QUEEN, IRIS DANCER, INVINCIBLE RUBY)≈ +1L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs HUNKY DORY (read through SAFARI DREAM, VALENTINE CATCHER, LORD ABAMA, THUNDERSTORM KATIE)≈ -1L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
5lb above his last winning mark (75 today vs 70)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayStable in form this week — 1 wins from 12 runsHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (3 from 5 here)Runs Front — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“close up, ridden approaching 2f out, kept on”
#6JANNAS JOURNEY (IRE)HELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 3 · OR 78 · Rhys Elliott / Jim Goldie
MARKET 11.5 · the market rates it a 9% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−
81.3FORMLAB FIGURE
70SPEED FIGURE · =4 OF 11 READ
13.18
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 8% chance
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 8.7pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
81.3 · ranked #6 here · career best 90
Speed Figure (FSF)
60 latest (8 Aug 26) · best 70 (last 6)
Official mark (OR)
78 · last won off 76
Record at today's distance
6 wins from 18 tries · beats market expectation (1.93)
Days since last run
13
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s) Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 101.03% (holds late)
Course fit today
reads against today's track (stride pattern for this track shape; run style vs how races develop here)
Field strength · class context
Sits 3lb above today's median (OR 78 v field 75) · a field 6lb weaker than last time (median 81 then) (AYR · 8 Aug 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
Career sheet · last 18 months · 25 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant20 May 26: 63 · 30 May 26: 69 · 12 Jun 26: 59 · 4 Jul 26: 67 · 16 Jul 26: 70 · 8 Aug 26: 60
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jim Goldie · 1670 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Paul Mulrennan
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 5 of 5 reverse in 2026
Over 5-6f trips ⇆75/45716.4%1.3213/1926.8%0.71
Coming back after 8 to 14 days ⇆73/37019.7%1.5212/1517.9%0.76
At this time of year (Q3) ⇆74/44416.7%1.2513/1598.2%0.75
Above their last winning mark ⇆106/52420.2%1.3422/21110.4%0.81
Changing jockey from the last run ⇆79/69611.4%1.0627/2819.6%0.88
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 90 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand
The rider
Rhys Elliott · last 14 days: 0/1· at Hamilton Park: A/E 0.96 (n63, raw 0.89)· with this yard: A/E 0.95 (n64, raw 0.86)
ConsensusFIG 6READ 3VAL 3POW 1MKT 41 of 5 instruments have him top-2
PACE FITFIT — hold-up type with the projected pace collapse in his favour · fit runners beat their published rank by +0.4 places (213-race gate)
LEAD READLead chance ~2% (model 2% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 10 read)
Market path2911.5(08:00→13:00, backed, 15 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 101.0% v course avg 99.3% (+1.7) · top speed 38.5mph v 40.9 (−2.4)
Stride-fitcareer stride 7.12m (n 28) v course norm 7.43m (LONG-STRIDE track) — SHORT-striding for a galloping track
Course form1 career win at this track
Time of year8 of 8 career wins have come in this window of the season
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75graded 41% · miss 39% · n=11575
Speed · vs its fields8th of 11
-0.06 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 11
+0.42s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · finishing power1st of 10
63pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 101.0% is vs its own average · +1.4 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.13× chance (9,259 runs)
Stride length11th of 11
7.27 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.454 m on this surface (−0.18 m) · −0.20 m vs today’s field — that band wins 0.91× chance at tracks of this shape (2,642 runs)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
8 Aug 26Ayr1mGood49th75607981True41.1+0.09103.6+0.71
12 Jun 26York7fGood48th75597777.5True38.9-0.7599.1+0.31
30 May 26Carlisle6f195yGd/Frm34th87697784True38.1+0.00101.9+0.75
20 May 26Ayr1mGd/Frm48th65637976Fast early40.6+0.2998.1+0.14
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
8 Aug 266.895.97STABLE3rd of 109th£27.0k£175k15%5.80underran the market
16 Jul 264.524.88STABLE3rd of 54th£40.7k£230k18%3.80ran to expectation
4 Jul 265.084.73STABLE2nd of 71st£35.7k£184k19%7.00ran to expectation
12 Jun 269.128.86STABLE3rd of 208th£25.5k£225k11%15.00underran the market
30 May 2620.4631.28DRIFT8th of 94th£8.4k£248k3%30.00outran the market
20 May 2612.2417.00DRIFT7th of 118th£8.6k£194k4%13.00ran to expectation
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the house steam/drift read between them. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-05-20 to 2026-08-08. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · miss 45% · n=2631 · null 50%
SIR GARFIELD (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
5 Jun 25 · 6f · Good — finished 8th vs 1st, 6.75L behind · OR 52 v 67 · race median 62 (today 75) · stale — 15m ago, not in the read
20 Sep 25 · 7f50y · Soft — finished 1st vs 8th, 8.5L ahead · OR 77 v 80 · race median 77 (today 75)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+5.7L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs ASHEN (IRE) (read through MISTER SOX, TAYGAR, IRIS DANCER, INVINCIBLE RUBY)≈ -4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs WHISKEY KISSES (IRE) (read through ORIENTAL PRINCE, NATIVE HONEY, KELPIE GREY, TAYGAR)≈ +2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs HUNKY DORY (read through COUNT PALATINE, ZIGGY'S CONDOR, TUSCAN POINT, CALL ME BETTY)≈ +1L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs BELSITO (GER) (read through KELPIE GREY, ZIGGY'S QUEEN, IRIS DANCER, INVINCIBLE RUBY)≈ -1L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayProven over the trip (18 tries, beats market expectation at 1.93)Lost roughly 3.2 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 5 here)
LTO comment
“steadied start, dropped out, pushed along over 2f out, stayed on final 1f”
#7HUNKY DORYPROMINENT
DRAW 7 · OR 80 · T. Kiely-Marshall / Linda Perratt
MARKET 28 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
80.3FORMLAB FIGURE
68SPEED FIGURE · #8 OF 11 READ
12.36
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 8% chance
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 9.7pts off the top, fit and race-ready; concedes ~3.9L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, without over-committing — but holds one pace late.
FormLab Figure
80.3 · ranked #7 here · career best 89
Speed Figure (FSF)
68 latest (19 Aug 26)
Official mark (OR)
80 · last won off 76
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 18 tries · below market expectation (0.55)
Days since last run
2
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.2s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races prominent
AGAINST today's track (finishing profile vs what this course demands) · last ran a suitable one (2026-08-19 Carlisle, turf)
Course scale · class context
steps up 8 places on the course scale (CARLISLE 24th → HAMILTON PARK 16th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Stands 5lb above today's median (OR 80 v field 75) · a near-level field move (-2lb) on last time (CARLISLE · 19 Aug 26)
Headgear
Cheekpieces today · whether this is a change cannot be read — headgear is missing from the results feed for recent months, so first-time and re-fitted cannot be told apart from a gap in the data
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Linda Perratt · 685 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 2 of 2 reverse in 2026
At this time of year (Q3) ⇆9/1685.4%0.957/4515.6%1.25
On turf ⇆11/2674.1%0.866/738.2%1.08
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · all 2 hold in both windows
At Hamilton Park2/513.9%0.930/160.0%0.86
Above their last winning mark10/1417.1%0.853/466.5%0.91
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 89 at/around today's trip, clears the ~87.0 demand
The rider
T. Kiely-Marshall · last 14 days: 2/15· at Hamilton Park: A/E 1.12 (n21, raw 1.81)· with this yard: A/E 1.03 (n14, raw 1.45)
ConsensusFIG 7READ 9VAL 9POW 7MKT 90 of 5 instruments have him top-2
PACE FITCLASH — forward type into a projected pace collapse · clash runners have run 1.3 places worse than ranked (213-race gate)
LEAD READLead chance ~11% (model 13% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 10 read)
Market path2128(06:40→13:00, drifting, 17 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 98.9% v course avg 99.3% (−0.4) · top speed 40.4mph v 40.9 (−0.5)
Stride-fitcareer stride 7.42m (n 19) v course norm 7.43m (LONG-STRIDE track) — FITS the track
Receiptslast read Carlisle 19 Aug: figure ≈ · pace ✗ · h2h ✗ · connections ✗(✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75graded 41% · miss 39% · n=11575
Speed · vs its fields10th of 11
-0.08 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 11
+0.11s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · finishing power7th of 10
51pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 98.9% is vs its own average · −0.7 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.02× chance (13,862 runs)
Stride length6th of 11
7.46 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.454 m on this surface (+0.01 m) · about level with today’s field (−0.01 m)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
19 Aug 26Carlisle6f195yGd/Sft46th80688076.5Fast early38.5-0.0194.0-0.14
26 Mar 26Chelmsford City6fStd45th74637777True41.5+0.27101.7+0.55
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
19 Aug 2632.07110.00DRIFT10th of 106th£2.2k£133k2%23.00outran the market
30 Jul 264.754.64STABLE2nd of 113rd£31.4k£140k22%1.45beaten from a winning position
20 May 267.186.19STABLE3rd of 106th£15.6k£125k12%6.00underran the market
17 Apr 263.324.14DRIFT1st of 118th£41.6k£147k28%4.00well backed, flopped — no pace excuse on the clock
10 Apr 266.545.70STABLE3rd of 71st£22.5k£158k14%5.30ran to expectation
26 Mar 266.816.60STABLE3rd of 95th£22.9k£185k12%10.00ran to expectation
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the house steam/drift read between them. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-03-26 to 2026-08-19. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · miss 45% · n=2631 · null 50%
Read through a common rival
vs LIPSINK (IRE) (read through STRIKE, KISS AND RUN, JAX EDGE, JUSTCALLMEPETE)≈ -2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs JANNAS JOURNEY (IRE) (read through COUNT PALATINE, ZIGGY'S CONDOR, TUSCAN POINT, CALL ME BETTY)≈ -1L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs ABDUCTION (FR) (read through NATIVE INSTINCT, COUNT PALATINE, PROSPERITAS, ZIGGY'S CONDOR)≈ +1L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs BELSITO (GER) (read through SAFARI DREAM, VALENTINE CATCHER, LORD ABAMA, THUNDERSTORM KATIE)≈ +1L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
4lb above his last winning mark (80 today vs 76)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayJockey goes well at this track (1.81x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 2 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“tracked pace, ridden not clear run over 2f out, weakened final 1f”
#8ASHEN (IRE)HELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 9 · OR 68 · Lauren Young / Jim Goldie
MARKET 5.2 · the market rates it a 19% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
76.0FORMLAB FIGURE
73SPEED FIGURE · #1 OF 11 READ
6.73
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 15% chance
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 14pts off the top, fits the winner profile on market position; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
76.0 · ranked #8 here · career best 76
Speed Figure (FSF)
73 latest (7 Aug 26)
Official mark (OR)
68 · last won off 63
Record at today's distance
1 win from 15 tries · below market expectation (0.48)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 99.97% (one-paced late)
Course fit today
reads against today's track (run style vs how races develop here)
Field strength · class context
Stands 7lb below today's median (OR 68 v field 75) · a field 5lb weaker than last time (median 80 then) (MUSSELBURGH · 7 Aug 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Jim Goldie · 1670 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Paul Mulrennan
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 4 of 4 reverse in 2026
Over 5-6f trips ⇆75/45716.4%1.3213/1926.8%0.71
Coming back after 8 to 14 days ⇆73/37019.7%1.5212/1517.9%0.76
At this time of year (Q3) ⇆74/44416.7%1.2513/1598.2%0.75
Above their last winning mark ⇆106/52420.2%1.3422/21110.4%0.81
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 76 is below the ~87.0 the race demands
The rider
Lauren Young · last 14 days: 3/15· at Hamilton Park: A/E 1.08 (n54, raw 1.22)· with this yard: A/E 1.14 (n343, raw 1.18)
ConsensusFIG 8READ 4VAL 4POW 3MKT 21 of 5 instruments have him top-2
Clock readWATCH — last run ran better than the bare result on a pace-adjusted sectional read · UPGRADE → note today
PACE FITFIT — hold-up type with the projected pace collapse in his favour · fit runners beat their published rank by +0.4 places (213-race gate)
LEAD READLead chance ~2% (model 2% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 10 read)
Market path6.65.2(06:40→13:00, backed, 17 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 100.0% v course avg 99.3% (+0.6) · top speed 42.0mph v 40.9 (+1.1)
Stride-fitcareer stride 7.25m (n 16) v course norm 7.43m (LONG-STRIDE track) — SHORT-striding for a galloping track
Receiptslast read Musselburgh 07 Aug: figure ✗ · connections ✓ · class ≈ · pace ≈(✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75graded 41% · miss 39% · n=11575
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 11
+0.12 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph11th of 11
+0.59s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · finishing power3rd of 10
59pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 100.0% is vs its own average · +0.4 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.02× chance (13,862 runs)
Stride length5th of 11
7.47 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.454 m on this surface (+0.02 m) · about level with today’s field (−0.00 m)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
7 Aug 26Musselburgh7f15yGood42nd76736780True39.7-0.1099.2+1.12
19 Jun 26Ayr7f50ySoft53rd74686766.5True38.7+0.16100.0+0.31
5 May 26Ayr7f50yGd/Frm61st72646357True39.7-0.48102.9+0.11
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
7 Aug 2610.9011.50STABLE5th of 112nd£19.9k£274k7%6.60outran the market
24 Jul 2621.0316.79STABLE5th of 1812th£7.8k£164k5%22.00underran the market
11 Jul 262.683.21DRIFT1st of 52nd£53.3k£141k38%1.50beaten from a winning position
6 Jul 265.343.27STABLE1st of 114th£92.9k£250k37%2.50underran the market
19 Jun 265.233.89STABLE1st of 83rd£19.5k£93k21%3.45ran to expectation
5 May 262.662.34STABLE1st of 71st£108.8k£238k46%2.68ran to expectation
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the house steam/drift read between them. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
6 Jul 26 · 7f50y · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 9th, 6.05L ahead · OR 67 v 65 · race median 67 (today 75)
Read through a common rival
vs SIR GARFIELD (IRE) (read through QUEST FOR FUN, CATALYSE, ONE MORE DREAM, LORD ABAMA)≈ +4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs JANNAS JOURNEY (IRE) (read through MISTER SOX, TAYGAR, IRIS DANCER, INVINCIBLE RUBY)≈ +4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs WRECK IT RYLEY (IRE) (read through MISTER SOX, FORTAMOUR, YES I'M MALI, QUEST FOR FUN)≈ +3L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs SHOOT TO KILL (IRE) (read through BLACK STORM, IT'SNEVERJUSTONE, HARRY THE ROGUE)≈ -1L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
5lb above his last winning mark (68 today vs 63)Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 4 todayLost roughly 5.0 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“chased leaders, ridden when forced to switch over 2f out, stayed on”
#9SHOOT TO KILL (IRE)FRONT
DRAW 4 · OR 74 · Shane Gray / Noel C. Kelly, Ireland
MARKET 17.5 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−
74.0FORMLAB FIGURE
72SPEED FIGURE · #2 OF 11 READ
19.77
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 5% chance
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 16pts off the top, dropping in class; its sectional profile is out of date.
FormLab Figure
74.0 · ranked #9 here · career best 85
Speed Figure (FSF)
57 latest (29 Mar 24) · best 72 (last 6)
Official mark (OR)
74 · last won off 80
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 22 tries · in line with the market (0.96)
Days since last run
24
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · among the slowest in its race clock read is off a superseded run
Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant26 Sep 23: 63 · 18 Oct 23: 65 · 7 Nov 23: 72 · 25 Nov 23: 57 · 7 Jan 24: 66 · 29 Mar 24: 57
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Noel C. Kelly, Ireland · 101 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 9.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: when the money drifts against their runner
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 1 of 1 reverse in 2026
In fields of 8-11 ⇆0/200.0%0.831/425.0%1.06
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 3 of 4 reverse in 2026
Over 5-6f trips0/40.0%0.96—
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ⇆3/339.1%1.050/100.0%0.90
Below their last winning mark ⇆1/812.5%1.040/70.0%0.93
At this time of year (Q3)0/160.0%0.860/50.0%0.95
On turf ⇆2/316.5%1.010/80.0%0.92
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 85 is below the ~87.0 the race demands
The rider
Shane Gray · last 14 days: 5/16· at Hamilton Park: A/E 1.31 (n77, raw 1.67)
ConsensusFIG 9READ 7VAL 7MKT 80 of 4 instruments have him top-2
PACE FITCLASH — forward type into a projected pace collapse · clash runners have run 1.3 places worse than ranked (213-race gate)
Market path1817.5(08:15→13:00, steady, 14 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 103.0% v course avg 99.3% (+3.7) · top speed 39.1mph v 40.9 (−1.8)
Stride-fitcareer stride 7.79m (n 2) v course norm 7.43m (LONG-STRIDE track) — action matches the extreme
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75graded 41% · miss 39% · n=11575
Speed · vs its fields11th of 11
-0.38 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.1 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 11
-0.04s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 1 of 1
Finish · closing speed
103.0%
Sustains — still going at the line · no Finishing Power read for this horse
Stride length3rd of 11
7.56 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.454 m on this surface (+0.11 m) · about level with today’s field (+0.09 m)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
7 Jan 24Wolverhampton7f36yStandard—2nd—66——True39.1-0.38103.0-0.04
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
7 Jan 24—————————no exchange record
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the house steam/drift read between them. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2024-01-07 to 2024-01-07 · last timed run 957 days ago — the profile is out of date.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has metgraded 55% · miss 45% · n=2631 · null 50%
Read through a common rival
vs ABDUCTION (FR) (read through BLACK STORM, LITTLE EMPIRE)≈ +6.0L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs ASHEN (IRE) (read through BLACK STORM, IT'SNEVERJUSTONE, HARRY THE ROGUE)≈ +1L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
Data gaps · sectional read off only 1 timed run
6lb below his last winning mark (74 today vs 80)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayJockey goes well at this track (1.67x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“close up, led after 1f, kicked on entering straight, headed final 1f, faded”
#10STIRRUP CUPHELD-UPSTART EXCUSE · VET-REJECTED
DRAW 1 · OR 73 · David Allan / Tim Easterby
MARKET 17 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
70.7FORMLAB FIGURE
60SPEED FIGURE · #11 OF 11 READ
12.73
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 8% chance
BOTTOM LINE
10th on the figures, 19.3pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; the clock has it fading late.
FormLab Figure
70.7 · ranked #10 here · career best 81
Speed Figure (FSF)
57 latest (17 Jun 26) · best 60 (last 6)
Official mark (OR)
73 · last won off 70
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 23 tries · beats market expectation (1.26)
Days since last run
65
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.4s) Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 99.01% (one-paced late)
Course fit today
reads against today's track (stride pattern for this track shape; run style vs how races develop here)
Field strength · class context
Sits 2lb below today's median (OR 73 v field 75) · a field 9lb stronger than last time (median 66 then) (HAMILTON PARK · 17 Jun 26)
Headgear
Cheekpieces and tongue strap
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant29 Dec 25: 56 · 10 Apr 26: 51 · 18 Apr 26: 55 · 17 May 26: 60 · 8 Jun 26: 57 · 17 Jun 26: 57
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 3343 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: in Class 1-3 company, at 16+ odds, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 1 of 1 reverse in 2026
At Hamilton Park ⇆10/7713.0%0.918/3125.8%1.22
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 1 of 4 reverse in 2026
With a runner returning from 60+ days off ⇆10/1437.0%1.022/1002.0%0.73
At this time of year (Q3) ✦100/11268.9%0.8921/2877.3%0.80
Coming back after 46 to 90 days4/745.4%0.861/214.8%0.98
In fields of 8-11 ✦127/12819.9%0.9734/4068.4%0.85
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 81 is below the ~87.0 the race demands
The rider
David Allan · last 14 days: 3/42· at Hamilton Park: A/E 1.04 (n80, raw 1.08)· with this yard: A/E 0.85 (n1740, raw 0.84)
ConsensusFIG 10READ 10VAL 10POW 10MKT 70 of 5 instruments have him top-2
Clock readFADE — last run result flattered by how the race unfolded on a pace-adjusted sectional read · SURGE faded → fade today
PACE FITFIT — hold-up type with the projected pace collapse in his favour · fit runners beat their published rank by +0.4 places (213-race gate)
LEAD READLead chance ~2% (model 2% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 10 read)
Market path3417(06:40→13:00, backed, 17 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 99.0% v course avg 99.3% (−0.3) · top speed 41.4mph v 40.9 (+0.5)
Stride-fitcareer stride 7.23m (n 22) v course norm 7.43m (LONG-STRIDE track) — SHORT-striding for a galloping track
Course form1 career win at this track
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75graded 41% · miss 39% · n=11575
Speed · vs its fields1st of 11
+0.13 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph10th of 11
+0.49s
Slow away in 5 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · finishing power10th of 10
51pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 99.0% is vs its own average · −0.6 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.02× chance (13,862 runs)
Stride length9th of 11
7.33 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.454 m on this surface (−0.12 m) · −0.14 m vs today’s field — that band wins 0.91× chance at tracks of this shape (2,642 runs)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
17 Jun 26Hamilton Park6fGood55th68577066True42.5+0.1398.2+0.61
8 Jun 26Carlisle5f182yGd/Sft51st81577068.5True39.8+0.24100.3+0.44
17 May 26Hamilton Park6fGood49th63607077True44.7+0.3094.5+0.64
29 Dec 25Newcastle6fStd48th53567075.5True40.1+0.0298.4+0.57
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
17 Jun 264.214.22STABLE1st of 85th£57.6k£179k32%2.56well backed, flopped — no pace excuse on the clock
8 Jun 265.003.88STABLE1st of 81st£43.4k£198k22%27.00won from a losing position
17 May 268.379.04STABLE4th of 139th£21.1k£245k9%3.20underran the market
18 Apr 267.505.74STABLE1st of 183rd£36.9k£172k22%8.00ran to expectation
10 Apr 2636.7634.00STABLE10th of 152nd£3.7k£174k2%12.00outran the market
29 Dec 2511.8612.50STABLE6th of 108th£6.7k£132k5%12.50ran to expectation
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the house steam/drift read between them. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
17 May 26 · 6f · Good — finished 9th vs 7th, 2L behind · OR 70 v 76 · race median 77 (today 75)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — CONFIRMS strongly vs 3 rival(s) met (+1.9L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs SIR GARFIELD (IRE) (read through THE GOOD BISCUIT, CATALYSE, COCONUT BAY, DREAM COMPOSER)≈ +2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs WRECK IT RYLEY (IRE) (read through VALENTINE CATCHER, YES I'M MALI, THE GOOD BISCUIT, EMPEROR'S SON)≈ +1L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs HUNKY DORY (read through ARABIAN COBRA, VALENTINE CATCHER, LORD ABAMA, FISCAL POLICY)≈ -1L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs LIPSINK (IRE) (read through BEAUTY CHOICE, HURT YOU NEVER, HARRY'S HALO, ONE MORE DREAM)≈ level — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
3lb above his last winning mark (73 today vs 70)Yet to win at this level — a Class 5 winner, upped to Class 4 todayProven over the trip (23 tries, beats market expectation at 1.26)Stable cold this week — 2 wins from 44 runsLost roughly 2.7 lengths at the start last timeMark CUT -3lb with a start deficit LTO, but the vet checklist REJECTED the excuse (grade C: habitual/unexplained) — the cut likely reflects genuine…Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 5 here)
LTO comment
“slowly away, waited with, pushed along 2f out, brief effort over 1f out, no extra”
#11WHISKEY KISSES (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 10 · OR 63 · Greg Fairley / R. Mike Smith
MARKET 65 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 5−
69.0FORMLAB FIGURE
66SPEED FIGURE · #10 OF 11 READ
18.36
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 5% chance
BOTTOM LINE
11th on the figures, 21pts off the top, fit and race-ready; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
69.0 · ranked #11 here · career best 70
Speed Figure (FSF)
60 latest (8 Aug 26) · best 66 (last 6)
Official mark (OR)
63 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 11 tries
Days since last run
13
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.2% (one-paced late)
Course fit today
reads against today's track (stride pattern for this track shape; run style vs how races develop here)
Field strength · class context
Stands 12lb below today's median (OR 63 v field 75) · a field 13lb stronger than last time (median 62 then) (AYR · 8 Aug 26)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
R. Mike Smith · 357 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions · all 2 hold in both windows
Coming back after 8 to 14 days6/688.8%1.013/2114.3%1.13
In Class 4-5 company5/1024.9%1.021/205.0%1.04
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 4 of 5 reverse in 2026
At Hamilton Park0/310.0%0.750/80.0%0.92
Over 5-6f trips ⇆8/869.3%1.080/320.0%0.75
In fields of 8-11 ⇆15/1679.0%1.171/551.8%0.80
On turf ⇆21/2498.4%1.133/823.7%0.82
At this time of year (Q3) ⇆10/1536.5%1.022/424.8%0.93
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 70 is below the ~87.0 the race demands
The rider
Greg Fairley · last 14 days: 1/10· at Hamilton Park: A/E 1.02 (n19, raw 1.28)· with this yard: A/E 0.99 (n1, raw 0)
ConsensusFIG 11READ 11VAL 11POW 9MKT 110 of 5 instruments have him top-2
PACE FITFIT — hold-up type with the projected pace collapse in his favour · fit runners beat their published rank by +0.4 places (213-race gate)
LEAD READLead chance ~2% (model 2% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 10 read)
Market path4065(06:40→13:00, drifting, 17 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 100.2% v course avg 99.3% (+0.9) · top speed 42.2mph v 40.9 (+1.4)
Stride-fitcareer stride 7.13m (n 10) v course norm 7.43m (LONG-STRIDE track) — SHORT-striding for a galloping track
Receiptslast read Ayr 08 Aug: figure ✓ · h2h ✗ · coursefit ≈(✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 75graded 41% · miss 39% · n=11575
Speed · vs its fields4th of 11
+0.06 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 11
+0.26s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · finishing power9th of 10
51pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 100.2% is vs its own average · +0.6 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.02× chance (13,862 runs)
Stride length8th of 11
7.36 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.454 m on this surface (−0.09 m) · −0.11 m vs today’s field — that band wins 0.91× chance at tracks of this shape (2,642 runs)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
8 Aug 26Ayr6fGood62nd69606262True42.4+0.3899.1+0.21
20 Jun 26Ayr6fSoft414th9486976True41.5+0.1699.2+0.39
25 Mar 26Lingfield6fStd56th62577272True41.4-0.51104.8+0.31
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
8 Aug 2625.0142.00DRIFT11th of 132nd£3.1k£153k2%20.00outran the market
20 Jul 262.862.43STABLE1st of 63rd£78.2k£178k44%1.35beaten from a winning position
13 Jul 2647.6175.00DRIFT8th of 83rd£3.0k£236k1%20.00outran the market
6 Jul 26177.83328.81STABLE11th of 119th£1.2k£250k0%100.00ran to expectation
20 Jun 2674.89135.73DRIFT14th of 1414th£1.5k£153k1%180.00ran to expectation
25 Mar 269.246.40STABLE4th of 76th£23.7k£220k11%7.40ran to expectation
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the house steam/drift read between them. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
6 Jul 26 · 7f50y · Gd/Frm — finished 9th vs 4th, 6.05L behind · OR 65 v 67 · race median 67 (today 75)
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-9.4L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs SIR GARFIELD (IRE) (read through ABERAMA GOLD, ETERNAL SUNSHINE, TINTO, TAYGAR)≈ -4L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs WRECK IT RYLEY (IRE) (read through NOVAMAY, IMPRESSOR)≈ -2.5L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs JANNAS JOURNEY (IRE) (read through ORIENTAL PRINCE, NATIVE HONEY, KELPIE GREY, TAYGAR)≈ -2L — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
vs BELSITO (GER) (read through IMPRESSOR, KELPIE GREY, THUNDERSTORM KATIE, PARISIAC)≈ level — CHAINED graded 56% · miss 44% · n=5309 · null 50%
Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Held-Up) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“in touch, headway 2f out, every chance final 1f, no extra final ½f”
The lean: SIR GARFIELD (IRE) · both orders settle in the nightly record either way. This report is a snapshot: figures, market and going are as of build time. · build 298506fthe full settled record → · ↑ back to top
FORMLAB
SIR GARFIELD (IRE)
Who this is. A 30-run class 4 handicapper. 7 career wins, each on the record (newest first):
01 Jul 2026
Epsom Downs
~6f
BSP 11.00
off 77
08 Apr 2026
Catterick Bridge
~6f
BSP 17.89
off 74
12 Aug 2025
Hamilton Park
~6f
BSP 3.80
off 74
05 Jun 2025
Hamilton Park
~6f
BSP 3.60
off 67
12 May 2025
Catterick Bridge
~7f
BSP 18.66
off 65
01 Oct 2024
Ayr
~7f
BSP 4.80
off 65
10 Jul 2024
Catterick Bridge
~7f
BSP 11.00
off 58
The mark has risen from 60 to 79 - the handicapper's own verdict on the arc of this career. The recent core is turf: 20 of the last 20 runs.
The figures. The FormLab figure today: 90.0, ranked #1 in this field; career best 91. Per-run ratings, last 5: 84 → 91 → 75 → 84 → 90. The best of them (91) was set 01 Jul 2026 at Epsom Downs. The latest ratings sit at or near the best - the ability is current, not historical.
The handicap. Today's mark is 79 - 2 lb HIGHER than the 77 it last won off; the handicapper still holds the form hostage. The winning marks on record: 58, 65, 65, 67, 74, 74, 77 - today's 79 sits outside that band. The mark had been rising across the last runs (74 → 79).
The class. At today's level (class 4): 12 runs, 3 wins, 6 top-3. In stronger company (class 2-3): 2 runs, 0 wins, 0 top-3 - the level matters.
The company. The recent fields' median marks: 79, 80, 88, 76, 79. Today's field median is 75 - a 4 lb WEAKER race than the recent company. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 33rd, 6th, 16th, 3rd, 6th; today's course ranks 16th - within the recent range.
The conditions. At today's distance: 7 wins from 30 tries - beats market expectation at the trip (1.52). On soft-side ground (today's band): 3 runs, 0 wins, 1 top-3. The record reads clearly better on good ground - today's band is not the favourite.
The clock. A stable profile, no era shift: long-striding (7.91m v 7.28 national), spends early and doesn't finish, races forward. Run by run (newest first):
14 Aug 2026
Epsom Downs
fin 2/8
FSF 70
pos 0.25
fsp 102.2
29 Jul 2026
Goodwood
fin 8/26
FSF 64
pos 0.31
fsp 95.5
17 Jul 2026
Hamilton Park
fin 6/7
FSF 71
pos 0.29
fsp 98.6
01 Jul 2026
Epsom Downs
fin 1/7
FSF 64
pos 0.14
fsp 103.0
08 Apr 2026
Catterick Brid
fin 1/9
FSF 67
pos 0.22
fsp 100.1
04 Nov 2025
Redcar
fin 7/14
FSF 58
pos 0.14
fsp 94.8
The venue. 4 previous tries at today's course: 1-2-1-6 - the record here is mixed, whatever the profile says.
The mechanism. At this course this horse strides 7.98m on average - AT or ABOVE the course's own winning average of 7.45m. The track's shape works with this action, and the stride data shows it directly.
The map (current profile vs every measured course - standing read, field-blind by construction). Best fits: Ascot, Ayr, Carlisle, Chelmsford City. Reads against: Goodwood
The money's biography. Over 30 priced runs, the market has historically been LATE on this horse (blind BSP backing +132%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 2 steams to 8 drifts across the career; the wins came at BSP 11.0, 4.8, 18.7, 3.6, 3.8, 17.9, 11.0; all 7 traded 1.01 in-running - when the blow lands it is decisive; caught from a winning position 2 times - a teaser at the finish. Peak conviction: 12 Aug 2024 at Ayr, £107k matched of £215k in the race. The recent money (newest first):
14 Aug 2026
Epsom Downs
held steady 3.3 → 2.9
£100k of £241k
beaten 2nd
29 Jul 2026
Goodwood
held steady 12.9 → 11.6
£28k of £379k
beaten 8th
17 Jul 2026
Hamilton Park
held steady 7.5 → 8.2
£26k of £210k
beaten 6th
The recent pattern: the money is arriving. Today, live: morning 10 → current 4.9 (backed).
The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 07-17: finished 6 at BSP 8.2, traded 6.00 in-running; 07-29: finished 8 at BSP 11.6, traded 8.20 in-running; 08-14: finished 2 at BSP 2.9, traded 1.19 in-running.
The eye-catcher caution. Last time this horse traded 1.19 in-running and was beaten - the visible hard-luck profile. Measured on 220,000+ runs ([P88]/[P89], both windows): this profile is systematically OVERBET next start (~4pp A/E deficit; excuse + narrowly beaten is worst). The story flatters; the price usually does not. Context only.
The form, reconciled. The wins have come racing forward AND from off the pace - the winning mode is tactical, not fixed, so a run-style objection is a variable here, never a verdict (the winning runs' own positions say so).
The people. The yard, last 14 days: 1 winners from 13 runners (8%) - quiet.
The campaign. Runs 7 days after the last start. The wins came 6-159 days after a previous run - today is inside the winning window.
Today's ask. Hamilton Park on Good to Soft: front-runners win at 1.65x chance (299 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.45m. For this horse, today's field-relative read is FOR: run style vs how races develop here. The race shape: 5 early types in a 11-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is one of them, cast in the pressure. The Setup Read counts this horse +0 across its six measured dimensions - neutral on the day's setup. Drawn 11 of 11 (the early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–11)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #1, votes for: figure top-2; race-fit (ran <=45d); form (top-3 LTO or recent win); market top-3; backed since morning; sharp from the stalls; proven at trip; proven on the going; yard positive in today’s setup; fits the winner profile on recency.
The live signals. The handicapper raised him 2lb in this week's revisions (79 to 81) - and the house probe says the market tends to over-pay for exactly this story (sharply-raised runners graded A/E 0.91 next time against 1.10 for controls), so it reads as context, never a coupon. The clock's pace-adjusted read files the last run WATCH - better than the bare result suggests. In the read's own words: “Runner-up at Epsom Downs (6f) — above the field's pace-adjusted level; its closing 2f was +1.34s inside the C4/FAST par. Closed around par (FSP 102.2%).”. On the exchange he has been drifting since 06:40 - 4.2 then, 4.9 at 13:00. Our own ledger holds the receipts from the last start (Epsom Downs, 14 Aug): the figure read hit, the pace read part-hit, the connections read hit, the h2h read hit - the same nightly grading that feeds the masthead record.
The watch line. The read turns negative the day the money stays away or the clock era slips - watch the next timed run and the next market.
FORMLAB
WRECK IT RYLEY (IRE)
Who this is. A 49-run class 4 handicapper. 6 career wins, each on the record (newest first):
13 Apr 2026
Leicester
~6f
BSP 3.04
off 73
07 Oct 2025
Leicester
~6f
BSP 7.00
off 68
12 Apr 2025
Thirsk
~6f
BSP 5.60
off 71
27 Aug 2024
Ripon
~6f
BSP 8.20
off 68
17 Aug 2023
Ayr
~7f
BSP 9.23
off 65
12 Feb 2023
Southwell
~5f
BSP 7.00
off 62
The mark has risen from 62 to 75 - the handicapper's own verdict on the arc of this career. The recent core is turf: 18 of the last 20 runs.
The figures. The FormLab figure today: 87.0, ranked #2 in this field; career best 87. Per-run ratings, last 5: 84 → 53 → 73 → 78 → 87. The best of them (87) was set 29 Jul 2026 at Goodwood. The latest ratings sit at or near the best - the ability is current, not historical.
The handicap. Today's mark is 77 - 4 lb HIGHER than the 73 it last won off; the handicapper still holds the form hostage. The winning marks on record: 62, 65, 68, 71, 68, 73 - today's 77 sits outside that band. The mark had been dropping across the last runs (80 → 75), then raised 2 lb to today's 77.
The class. At today's level (class 4): 22 runs, 1 win, 4 top-3. In stronger company (class 3-3): 1 runs, 0 wins, 0 top-3 - the level matters.
The company. The recent fields' median marks: 80, 79, 83, 77, 76. Today's field median is 75 - a 4 lb WEAKER race than the recent company. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 10th, 18th, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd; today's course ranks 16th - within the recent range.
The conditions. At today's distance: 6 wins from 48 tries - beats market expectation at the trip (1.07). On soft-side ground (today's band): 8 runs, 0 wins, 4 top-3. The record reads clearly better on good ground - today's band is not the favourite.
The horse on the clock - improving. The recent six have moved forward on the six before: closing speed 98.3% to 97.6%, early position 0.65 to 0.48. Run by run (newest first):
29 Jul 2026
Goodwood
fin 3/26
FSF 67
pos 0.35
fsp 96.2
11 Jul 2026
York
fin 6/19
FSF 69
pos 0.26
fsp 97.5
27 Jun 2026
York
fin 9/14
FSF 64
pos 0.43
fsp 100.1
06 Jun 2026
Musselburgh
fin 8/9
FSF 53
pos 0.78
fsp 99.7
16 May 2026
Doncaster
fin 3/12
FSF 65
pos 0.33
fsp 99.4
08 May 2026
Ripon
fin 8/9
FSF 62
pos 0.73
fsp 92.7
The mechanism (career read). No stride record at this course yet, so the career speaks: 7.37m a stride over 30 measured runs against 7.43m at this LONG-stride track - the action FITS - stride and track are built for each other. [P96] tested this cell over 144,801 runs: fully priced by the market. It explains; it never tips.
The map (current profile vs every measured course - standing read, field-blind by construction). Best fits: Kempton Park, Wolverhampton. Reads against: Ayr, Bath, Beverley, Brighton. Today sits in the AGAINST set.
The money's biography. Over 49 priced runs, the career is priced about right (blind BSP -20%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 2 steams to 13 drifts across the career; the wins came at BSP 7.0, 9.2, 8.2, 5.6, 7.0, 3.0; all 6 traded 1.01 in-running - when the blow lands it is decisive; and in the whole career this horse has never traded below 2.0 and lost: the flops are honest, beaten early, not late. Peak conviction: 11 Mar 2023 at Wolverhampton, £104k matched of £272k in the race. The recent money (newest first):
29 Jul 2026
Goodwood
held steady 54.2 → 46.8
£7k of £379k
beaten 3rd
11 Jul 2026
York
held steady 80.4 → 80.5
£3k of £239k
beaten 6th
27 Jun 2026
York
held steady 106.2 → 100.0
£5k of £346k
beaten 9th
The last run's market share (2% of the pool against a 12% norm) is the loudest line on the page: the money left BEFORE the race, and the result proved it right. The recent money pattern is quiet. Today, live: morning 5 → current 5.9 (drifting).
The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 06-27: finished 9 at BSP 100.0, traded 32.00 in-running; 07-11: finished 6 at BSP 80.5, traded 26.00 in-running; 07-29: finished 3 at BSP 46.8, traded 32.00 in-running.
The form, reconciled. The wins have come racing forward AND from off the pace - the winning mode is tactical, not fixed, so a run-style objection is a variable here, never a verdict (the winning runs' own positions say so).
The people. The yard, last 14 days: 0 winners from 6 runners (0%) - cold. A validated yard angle fires - the money is drifting against this one today. This yard in that spot: 2024-25: 6/117 (A/E 1.2); 2026: 1/40 (A/E 0.83) - that edge has NOT carried into 2026 - the pattern has reversed, treat with care.
The campaign. Runs 23 days after the last start. The wins came 10-196 days after a previous run - today is inside the winning window.
Today's ask. Hamilton Park on Good to Soft: front-runners win at 1.65x chance (299 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.45m. For this horse, today's field-relative read is AGAINST: finishing profile vs what the course demands. The race shape: 5 early types in a 11-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is not among them - the collapse, if it comes, is the opportunity. The Setup Read counts this horse +3 across its six measured dimensions - on the right side of how the race sets up. Drawn 2 of 11 (the early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–11)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #2, votes for: figure top-2; race-fit (ran <=45d); form (top-3 LTO or recent win); market top-3; top-2 late speed today; sharp from the stalls; energy in the winning band; runs the dominant winning style here; fits the winner profile on recency. Every one of those votes is true - and the layers above are the context the votes cannot see. That tension IS the read.
The live signals. The clock's pace-adjusted read files the last run WATCH - better than the bare result suggests. In the read's own words: “Third at Goodwood (6f) — above the field's pace-adjusted level; in a fast-run race it finished +0.91 SD clear of the field on the clock (raw final 2f -0.26s vs par, so the bare time understates it). Closed below par (FSP 96.2%).”. On the exchange he has been drifting since 06:40 - 5 then, 5.9 at 13:00.
The watch line. A mixed page - the next timed run decides which story this becomes.
FORMLAB
LIPSINK (IRE)
Who this is. A 32-run class 4 handicapper. 6 career wins, each on the record (newest first):
27 Oct 2025
Wolverhampton
~6f
BSP 5.32
off 74
18 Oct 2025
Catterick Bridge
~6f
BSP 6.20
off 72
15 Oct 2025
Kempton Park
~6f
BSP 31.47
off 72
29 Aug 2025
Sandown Park
~5f
BSP 6.40
off 68
15 Nov 2024
Wolverhampton
~5f
BSP 9.20
off 69
13 Jun 2024
Nottingham
~6f
BSP 17.49
off 64
The recent core is turf: 14 of the last 20 runs.
The figures. The FormLab figure today: 85.0, ranked #3 in this field; career best 87. Per-run ratings, last 5: 81 → 80 → 87 → 81 → 85. The best of them (87) was set 27 Oct 2025 at Wolverhampton. The latest ratings sit at or near the best - the ability is current, not historical.
The handicap. Today's mark is 78 - 4 lb HIGHER than the 74 it last won off; the handicapper still holds the form hostage. The winning marks on record: 64, 69, 68, 72, 72, 74 - today's 78 sits outside that band. The mark had been rising across the last runs (72 → 78).
The class. At today's level (class 4): 11 runs, 1 win, 4 top-3. In stronger company (class 2-3): 2 runs, 0 wins, 0 top-3 - the level matters.
The company. The recent fields' median marks: 73, 76, 74, 76, 76. Today's field median is 75 - much the same level of company as of late. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 17th, 33rd, 32nd, 26th, 9th; today's course ranks 16th - within the recent range.
The conditions. At today's distance: 6 wins from 32 tries - beats market expectation at the trip (1.42). On soft-side ground (today's band): 4 runs, 1 win, 2 top-3. The record reads clearly better on good ground - today's band is not the favourite.
The clock. A stable profile, no era shift: spends early and doesn't finish, races forward. Run by run (newest first):
12 Jun 2026
Sandown Park
fin 2/9
FSF 70
pos 0.11
fsp 97.8
06 Nov 2025
Chelmsford Cit
fin 4/10
FSF 63
pos 0.09
fsp 97.3
27 Oct 2025
Wolverhampton
fin 1/7
FSF 58
pos 0.14
fsp 103.3
18 Oct 2025
Catterick Brid
fin 1/10
FSF 64
pos -
fsp 97.6
15 Oct 2025
Kempton Park
fin 1/11
FSF 67
pos 0.18
fsp 101.2
30 Sep 2025
Bath
fin 5/14
FSF 66
pos 0.21
fsp 96.5
The mechanism (career read). No stride record at this course yet, so the career speaks: 7.45m a stride over 21 measured runs against 7.43m at this LONG-stride track - the action FITS - stride and track are built for each other. [P96] tested this cell over 144,801 runs: fully priced by the market. It explains; it never tips.
The map (current profile vs every measured course - standing read, field-blind by construction). Best fits: Ascot, Ayr, Bath, Beverley. Reads against: none
The money's biography. Over 32 priced runs, the market has historically been LATE on this horse (blind BSP backing +133%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 0 steams to 9 drifts across the career; the wins came at BSP 17.5, 9.2, 6.4, 31.5, 6.2, 5.3; all 6 traded 1.01 in-running - when the blow lands it is decisive; caught from a winning position 3 times - a teaser at the finish. Peak conviction: 29 Jul 2024 at Windsor, £80k matched of £170k in the race. The recent money (newest first):
12 Jun 2026
Sandown Park
drifted 35.0 → 55.0
£4k of £211k
beaten 2nd
06 Nov 2025
Chelmsford City
drifted 9.8 → 11.3
£10k of £126k
beaten 4th
27 Oct 2025
Wolverhampton
drifted 3.6 → 5.3
£25k of £137k
won
The last run's market share (2% of the pool against a 11% norm) is the loudest line on the page: the money left BEFORE the race, and the result proved it right. The recent pattern: the money has left. Today, live: morning 16 → current 34 (drifting).
The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 10-27: finished 1 at BSP 5.3, traded 1.01 in-running; 11-06: finished 4 at BSP 11.3, traded 6.80 in-running; 06-12: finished 2 at BSP 55.0, traded 4.90 in-running.
The form, reconciled. The wins have come racing forward AND from off the pace - the winning mode is tactical, not fixed, so a run-style objection is a variable here, never a verdict (the winning runs' own positions say so).
The people. The yard, last 14 days: 2 winners from 18 runners (11%) - quiet. This jockey with this yard: 622 prior rides, A/E 1.07 - a fair-priced pairing. A validated yard angle fires - back from a 60+ day break today. This yard in that spot: 2024-25: 9/130 (A/E 0.68); 2026: 7/46 (A/E 1.42) - but 2026 has flipped that weakness the other way - the old caution is stale.
The campaign. Runs 70 days after the last start. The wins came 3-288 days after a previous run - today is inside the winning window.
Today's ask. Hamilton Park on Good to Soft: front-runners win at 1.65x chance (299 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.45m. For this horse, the fit engine reads today neutral on every dimension - honestly, it has nothing to say; the record and the market carry this one. The race shape: 5 early types in a 11-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is one of them, cast in the pressure. The Setup Read counts this horse -1 across its six measured dimensions - set up against, by the count. Drawn 8 of 11 (the early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–11)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #5, votes for: form (top-3 LTO or recent win); sharp from the stalls; energy in the winning band; proven at trip.
The live signals. On the exchange he has been drifting since 06:40 - 27 then, 34 at 13:00.
The watch line. A mixed page - the next timed run decides which story this becomes.
FORMLAB
ABDUCTION (FR)
Who this is. A 51-run class 4 handicapper. 5 career wins, each on the record (newest first):
12 Apr 2026
Musselburgh
~7f
BSP 13.50
off 74
31 Jan 2026
Newcastle
~7f
BSP 18.50
off 73
03 Aug 2025
Chester
~8f
BSP 7.24
15 Jun 2025
Hamilton Park
~6f
BSP 9.92
off 76
17 Aug 2023
Ayr
~7f
BSP 11.00
off 80
The mark has slid from 87 to 74 - the handicapper's own verdict on the arc of this career. The recent core is turf: 15 of the last 20 runs.
The figures. The FormLab figure today: 83.0, ranked #4 in this field; career best 95. Per-run ratings, last 5: 48 → 80 → 82 → 82 → 83. The best of them (95) was set 17 Aug 2023 at Ayr. Nothing in the last three has run within 12 lb of that best - the figures say the peak is behind, until they say otherwise.
The handicap. Today's mark is 74 - exactly the mark of the last win. The winning marks on record: 80, 76, 73, 74 - today's 74 sits inside that band.
The class. At today's level (class 4): 30 runs, 5 wins, 13 top-3. In stronger company (class 2-3): 18 runs, 0 wins, 5 top-3 - the level matters.
The company. The recent fields' median marks: 79, 78, 73, 67, 72. Today's field median is 75 - much the same level of company as of late. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 18th, 12th, 18th, 12th, 12th; today's course ranks 16th - within the recent range.
The conditions. At today's distance: 4 wins from 47 tries - below market expectation at the trip (0.83). On soft-side ground (today's band): 5 runs, 0 wins, 2 top-3.
The clock. A stable profile, no era shift: long-striding (7.60m v 7.28 national), holds late, drops in behind. Run by run (newest first):
27 Jul 2026
Ayr
fin 2/5
FSF 69
pos 0.80
fsp 102.8
06 Jul 2026
Ayr
fin 3/11
FSF 68
pos 0.73
fsp 101.6 (TF)
30 Jun 2026
Musselburgh
fin 3/8
FSF 69
pos 0.75
fsp 103.5
20 Jun 2026
Ayr
fin 3/14
FSF 69
pos 0.57
fsp 99.2 (TF)
06 Jun 2026
Musselburgh
fin 7/9
FSF 53
pos 0.56
fsp 98.8
17 May 2026
Hamilton Park
fin 7/13
FSF 62
pos 0.77
fsp 98.3 (TF)
The venue. 2 previous tries at today's course: 1-7 - the record here is mixed, whatever the profile says.
The mechanism. At this course this horse strides 7.96m on average - AT or ABOVE the course's own winning average of 7.45m. The track's shape works with this action, and the stride data shows it directly.
The map (current profile vs every measured course - standing read, field-blind by construction). Best fits: Ascot, Ayr, Carlisle, Chelmsford City. Reads against: Chester, Epsom Downs, Lingfield Park
The money's biography. Over 51 priced runs, the market has historically been LATE on this horse (blind BSP backing +16%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 0 steams to 17 drifts across the career; the wins came at BSP 11.0, 9.9, 7.2, 18.5, 13.5; all 5 traded 1.01 in-running - when the blow lands it is decisive; caught from a winning position 4 times - a teaser at the finish. Peak conviction: 23 May 2023 at Ayr, £77k matched of £254k in the race. The recent money (newest first):
27 Jul 2026
Ayr
held steady 8.6 → 6.2
£30k of £206k
beaten 2nd
06 Jul 2026
Ayr
held steady 5.3 → 5.6
£48k of £250k
beaten 3rd
30 Jun 2026
Musselburgh
drifted 10.3 → 18.5
£11k of £193k
beaten 3rd
The recent pattern: the money is arriving. Today, live: morning 9.8 → current 13 (drifting).
The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 06-30: finished 3 at BSP 18.5, traded 2.94 in-running; 07-06: finished 3 at BSP 5.6, traded 1.17 in-running; 07-27: finished 2 at BSP 6.2, traded 4.50 in-running.
The form, reconciled. The wins have come racing forward AND from off the pace - the winning mode is tactical, not fixed, so a run-style objection is a variable here, never a verdict (the winning runs' own positions say so).
The people. The yard, last 14 days: 4 winners from 39 runners (10%) - quiet.
The campaign. Runs 25 days after the last start. The wins came 6-47 days after a previous run - today is inside the winning window.
Today's ask. Hamilton Park on Good to Soft: front-runners win at 1.65x chance (299 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.45m. For this horse, the fit engine reads today neutral on every dimension - honestly, it has nothing to say; the record and the market carry this one. The race shape: 5 early types in a 11-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is not among them - the collapse, if it comes, is the opportunity. The Setup Read counts this horse +0 across its six measured dimensions - neutral on the day's setup. Drawn 5 of 11 (the early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–11)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #6, votes for: race-fit (ran <=45d); form (top-3 LTO or recent win); proven on the going; fits the winner profile on recency.
The live signals. The clock's pace-adjusted read files the last run WATCH - better than the bare result suggests. In the read's own words: “Runner-up at Ayr (7f) — above the field's pace-adjusted level; in a fast-run race it finished +0.68 SD clear of the field on the clock (raw final 2f -0.05s vs par, so the bare time understates it). Closed around par (FSP 102.8%).”. On the exchange he has been drifting since 06:40 - 11 then, 13 at 13:00.
The watch line. The read turns negative the day the money stays away or the clock era slips - watch the next timed run and the next market.
FORMLAB
BELSITO (GER)
Who this is. A 28-run class 5 handicapper. 4 career wins, each on the record (newest first):
04 Jun 2026
Hamilton Park
~6f
BSP 6.00
off 70
21 Sep 2025
Hamilton Park
~6f
BSP 3.30
off 68
03 Sep 2025
Hamilton Park
~6f
BSP 6.60
off 61
17 Jun 2024
Carlisle
~6f
BSP 3.58
off 62
3 of the 4 came at Hamilton Park - the career has an address. The recent core is turf: 17 of the last 20 runs.
The figures. The FormLab figure today: 82.0, ranked #5 in this field; career best 84. Per-run ratings, last 5: 59 → 60 → 77 → 84 → 82. The best of them (84) was set 04 Jun 2026 at Hamilton Park. The latest ratings sit at or near the best - the ability is current, not historical.
The handicap. Today's mark is 75 - 5 lb HIGHER than the 70 it last won off; the handicapper still holds the form hostage. The winning marks on record: 62, 61, 68, 70 - today's 75 sits outside that band. The mark had been rising across the last runs (71 → 75).
The class. At today's level (class 4): 1 runs, 0 wins, 0 top-3. RISES in grade today (class 5 last time → 4).
The company. The recent fields' median marks: 70, 69, 70, 65, 73. Today's field median is 75 - a 5 lb STRONGER race than the recent company. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 19th, 11th, 22nd, 16th, 22nd; today's course ranks 16th - within the recent range.
The conditions. At today's distance: 4 wins from 28 tries - beats market expectation at the trip (1.11). On soft-side ground (today's band): 7 runs, 1 win, 3 top-3.
The horse on the clock - improving. The recent six have moved forward on the six before: closing speed 96.3% to 99.3%, early position 0.38 to 0.21. Run by run (newest first):
27 Jul 2026
Southwell
fin 3/12
FSF 64
pos 0.17
fsp 105.4
04 Jun 2026
Hamilton Park
fin 1/9
FSF 66
pos 0.11
fsp 94.8
29 Apr 2026
Southwell
fin 4/8
FSF 63
pos 0.12
fsp 103.4
10 Apr 2026
Thirsk
fin 11/15
FSF 42
pos 0.40
fsp 100.3 (TF)
06 Oct 2025
Pontefract
fin 8/13
FSF 59
pos 0.23
fsp 93.6
1 of the last 6 runs carry no sectional coverage - gaps, not zeros.
The venue - the record towers over the profile. 5 previous runs at today's course read 5-4-1-1-1: 3 wins, 3 of 5 in the first three. Course affinity this loud is proven by results, not projected - and since [P56], a previous win here is a counted vote, not just a chip.
The mechanism. At this course this horse strides 7.92m on average - AT or ABOVE the course's own winning average of 7.45m. The track's shape works with this action, and the stride data shows it directly.
The map (current profile vs every measured course - standing read, field-blind by construction). Best fits: Ascot, Ayr, Bath, Beverley. Reads against: none
The money's biography. Over 28 priced runs, the market has historically over-loved this horse (blind BSP backing -32%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 1 steam to 10 drifts across the career; the wins came at BSP 3.6, 6.6, 3.3, 6.0; all 4 traded 1.01 in-running - when the blow lands it is decisive; and in the whole career this horse has never traded below 2.0 and lost: the flops are honest, beaten early, not late. Peak conviction: 22 May 2023 at Redcar, £74k matched of £193k in the race. The recent money (newest first):
27 Jul 2026
Southwell
drifted 13.2 → 17.0
£7k of £184k
beaten 3rd
04 Jun 2026
Hamilton Park
held steady 7.5 → 6.0
£30k of £218k
won
29 Apr 2026
Southwell
drifted 12.5 → 18.5
£10k of £160k
beaten 4th
The last run's market share (4% of the pool against a 16% norm) is the loudest line on the page: the money left BEFORE the race, and the result proved it right. The recent pattern: the money has left. Today, live: morning 8.6 → current 12 (drifting).
The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 04-29: finished 4 at BSP 18.5, traded 10.00 in-running; 06-04: finished 1 at BSP 6.0, traded 1.01 in-running; 07-27: finished 3 at BSP 17.0, traded 8.60 in-running.
A tension, named. The clock and the money point in opposite directions here. The layers are shown, never forced to agree - the disagreement itself is the information.
The form, reconciled. The wins have come racing forward AND from off the pace - the winning mode is tactical, not fixed, so a run-style objection is a variable here, never a verdict (the winning runs' own positions say so).
The people. The yard, last 14 days: 1 winners from 27 runners (4%) - cold. This jockey with this yard: 703 prior rides, A/E 1.15 - a combination the market underestimates.
The campaign. Runs 25 days after the last start. The wins came 7-37 days after a previous run - today is inside the winning window.
Today's ask. Hamilton Park on Good to Soft: front-runners win at 1.65x chance (299 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.45m. For this horse, today's field-relative read is FOR: run style vs how races develop here. The race shape: 5 early types in a 11-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is one of them, cast in the pressure. The Setup Read counts this horse -1 across its six measured dimensions - set up against, by the count. Drawn 6 of 11 (the early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–11)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #8, votes for: race-fit (ran <=45d); form (top-3 LTO or recent win); sharp from the stalls; proven on the going; yard positive in today’s setup; fits the winner profile on recency; against: burns early and empties; yard cold; 5lb+ above last winning mark. The profile likes this one more than the count does - that tension IS the read.
The live signals. On the exchange he has been drifting since 06:40 - 8.6 then, 12 at 13:00. Our own ledger holds the receipts from the last start (Southwell, 27 Jul): the figure read part-hit, the pace read missed, the connections read hit, the class read part-hit - the same nightly grading that feeds the masthead record.
The watch line. The venue case is proven by the record; the live question is everything else - the mark, the field, the run of the race. The read turns negative the day the money stays away here.
FORMLAB
JANNAS JOURNEY (IRE)
Who this is. A 29-run class 4 handicapper. 8 career wins, each on the record (newest first):
04 Jul 2026
Carlisle
~8f
BSP 4.73
off 76
20 Sep 2025
Ayr
~7f
BSP 6.00
off 77
13 Sep 2025
Musselburgh
~7f
BSP 9.15
off 74
18 Aug 2025
Ayr
~7f
BSP 1.23
off 67
11 Aug 2025
Ayr
~7f
BSP 1.83
off 62
28 Jul 2025
Ayr
~8f
BSP 1.71
off 56
21 Jul 2025
Ayr
~7f
BSP 2.36
off 52
17 Jul 2025
Hamilton Park
~6f
BSP 4.70
off 47
5 of the 8 came at Ayr - the career has an address. The mark has risen from 55 to 79 - the handicapper's own verdict on the arc of this career. The recent core is turf: 20 of the last 20 runs.
The figures. The FormLab figure today: 81.3, ranked #6 in this field; career best 90. Per-run ratings, last 5: 87 → 75 → 88 → 81 → 75. The best of them (90) was set 20 Sep 2025 at Ayr. The latest ratings sit at or near the best - the ability is current, not historical.
The handicap. Today's mark is 78 - 2 lb HIGHER than the 76 it last won off; the handicapper still holds the form hostage. The winning marks on record: 47, 52, 56, 62, 67, 74, 77, 76 - today's 78 sits outside that band. The mark had been rising across the last runs (77 → 79), then eased 1 lb to today's 78.
The class. At today's level (class 4): 8 runs, 2 wins, 2 top-3. In stronger company (class 2-3): 8 runs, 0 wins, 2 top-3 - the level matters.
The company. The recent fields' median marks: 84, 78, 75, 77, 82. Today's field median is 75 - a 3 lb WEAKER race than the recent company. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 24th, 2nd, 24th, 16th, 12th; today's course ranks 16th - within the recent range.
The conditions. At today's distance: 6 wins from 18 tries - beats market expectation at the trip (1.93). On soft-side ground (today's band): 2 runs, 1 win, 1 top-3.
The horse on the clock - and the one replacing it. Two different animals share this form book. The earlier era: early position 0.66 of the field, closing at 97.7%. The recent six: position 0.83, closing at 100.2%. The profile that earned the older form is not the one arriving today. Run by run (newest first):
08 Aug 2026
Ayr
fin 9/10
FSF 60
pos 1.00
fsp 104.4 (TF)
16 Jul 2026
Hamilton Park
fin 4/5
FSF 70
pos 1.00
fsp 101.3
04 Jul 2026
Carlisle
fin 1/7
FSF 67
pos 1.00
fsp 102.1
12 Jun 2026
York
fin 8/20
FSF 59
pos 0.43
fsp 99.1
30 May 2026
Carlisle
fin 4/9
FSF 69
pos 0.89
fsp 101.9 (TF)
20 May 2026
Ayr
fin 8/11
FSF 63
pos 0.64
fsp 98.1
The last run's early position (1.00 of the field) was the furthest back this horse has ever raced.
The venue. 5 previous tries at today's course: 8-8-1-3-4 - the record here is mixed, whatever the profile says.
The mechanism (career read). No stride record at this course yet, so the career speaks: 7.12m a stride over 28 measured runs against 7.43m at this LONG-stride track - a SHORT-striding horse on a galloping track - the action argues with the geometry. [P96] tested this cell over 144,801 runs: fully priced by the market. It explains; it never tips.
The map (current profile vs every measured course - standing read, field-blind by construction). Best fits: no strong home - the least-against are Carlisle (where the wins live). Reads against: Ascot, Ayr, Bath, Beverley. Today sits in the AGAINST set.
The money's biography. Over 29 priced runs, the career is priced about right (blind BSP +8%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 1 steam to 12 drifts across the career; the wins came at BSP 4.7, 2.4, 1.7, 1.8, 1.2, 9.1, 6.0, 4.7; all 8 traded 1.01 in-running - when the blow lands it is decisive; and in the whole career this horse has never traded below 2.0 and lost: the flops are honest, beaten early, not late. Peak conviction: 11 Aug 2025 at Ayr, £215k matched of £312k in the race. The recent money (newest first):
08 Aug 2026
Ayr
held steady 6.9 → 6.0
£27k of £175k
beaten 9th
16 Jul 2026
Hamilton Park
held steady 4.5 → 4.9
£41k of £230k
beaten 4th
04 Jul 2026
Carlisle
held steady 5.1 → 4.7
£36k of £184k
won
The recent money pattern is quiet. Today, live: morning 23 → current 11.5 (backed).
The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 07-04: finished 1 at BSP 4.7, traded 1.01 in-running; 07-16: finished 4 at BSP 4.9, traded 3.80 in-running; 08-08: finished 9 at BSP 6.0, traded 5.80 in-running.
The form, reconciled. The wins have come racing forward AND from off the pace - the winning mode is tactical, not fixed, so a run-style objection is a variable here, never a verdict (the winning runs' own positions say so). The best of the old form (1st at Musselburgh, 13 Sep 2025; 1st at Ayr, 20 Sep 2025; 2nd at Musselburgh, 13 Oct 2025) was earned by the EARLIER profile era - judge it against the horse that earned it, not the one arriving today. If the old numbers return on the clock, the map redraws - that is the thing to watch in the next sectionals.
The people. The yard, last 14 days: 4 winners from 39 runners (10%) - quiet. This jockey with this yard: 64 prior rides, A/E 0.86 - a combination the market over-trusts.
The campaign. Runs 13 days after the last start. The wins came 4-23 days after a previous run - today is inside the winning window.
Today's ask. Hamilton Park on Good to Soft: front-runners win at 1.65x chance (299 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.45m. For this horse, today's field-relative read is AGAINST: stride pattern for this track shape; run style vs how races develop here. The race shape: 5 early types in a 11-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is not among them - the collapse, if it comes, is the opportunity. The Setup Read counts this horse +2 across its six measured dimensions - on the right side of how the race sets up. Drawn 3 of 11 (the early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–11)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #3, votes for: race-fit (ran <=45d); form (top-3 LTO or recent win); top-2 late speed today; proven at trip; proven on the going; FormLab watch flag; fits the winner profile on recency; meets much weaker company by the marks. Every one of those votes is true - and the layers above are the context the votes cannot see. That tension IS the read.
The live signals. On the exchange he has been backed since 08:00 - 29 then, 11.5 at 13:00. Our own ledger holds the receipts from the last start (Ayr, 08 Aug): the figure read missed, the connections read missed, the h2h read missed, the coursefit read missed - the same nightly grading that feeds the masthead record.
The watch line. The read flips positive the day two things reappear together: the old numbers on the clock, and the money arriving - at a track the map likes. Neither was present today.
FORMLAB
HUNKY DORY
Who this is. A 19-run class 4 handicapper. 2 career wins, each on the record (newest first):
10 Apr 2026
Wolverhampton
~6f
BSP 5.70
off 76
28 Dec 2025
Southwell
~6f
BSP 2.77
off 73
The mark has risen from 74 to 80 - the handicapper's own verdict on the arc of this career.
The figures. The FormLab figure today: 80.3, ranked #7 in this field; career best 89. Per-run ratings, last 5: 89 → 62 → 87 → 74 → 80. The best of them (89) was set 10 Apr 2026 at Wolverhampton. The latest ratings sit at or near the best - the ability is current, not historical.
The handicap. Today's mark is 80 - 4 lb HIGHER than the 76 it last won off; the handicapper still holds the form hostage. The winning marks on record: 73, 76 - today's 80 sits outside that band. The mark had been rising across the last runs (76 → 80).
The class. At today's level (class 4): 10 runs, 1 win, 2 top-3. In stronger company (class 2-3): 1 runs, 0 wins, 0 top-3 - the level matters.
The company. The recent fields' median marks: 77, 75, 82, 77. Today's field median is 75 - much the same level of company as of late. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 32nd, 34th, 17th, 32nd, 24th; today's course ranks 16th - the strongest-ranked stop of the recent campaign.
The conditions. At today's distance: 2 wins from 18 tries - below market expectation at the trip (0.55). On soft-side ground (today's band): 1 runs, 0 wins, 0 top-3.
The clock. A stable profile, no era shift: long-striding (7.46m v 7.28 national), spends early and doesn't finish, races midfield. Run by run (newest first):
19 Aug 2026
Carlisle
fin 6/10
FSF 68
pos 0.50
fsp 94.0
30 Jul 2026
Wolverhampton
fin 3/11
FSF 66
pos 0.64
fsp 98.8
20 May 2026
Kempton Park
fin 6/10
FSF 64
pos 0.18
fsp 103.9 (TF)
17 Apr 2026
Bath
fin 8/11
FSF 42
pos 0.55
fsp 92.6
10 Apr 2026
Wolverhampton
fin 1/7
FSF 67
pos 0.14
fsp 102.5 (TF)
26 Mar 2026
Chelmsford Cit
fin 5/9
FSF 63
pos 0.56
fsp 101.7
The mechanism (career read). No stride record at this course yet, so the career speaks: 7.42m a stride over 19 measured runs against 7.43m at this LONG-stride track - the action FITS - stride and track are built for each other. [P96] tested this cell over 144,801 runs: fully priced by the market. It explains; it never tips.
The map (current profile vs every measured course - standing read, field-blind by construction). Best fits: Kempton Park, Wolverhampton. Reads against: Bath, Beverley, Brighton, Catterick Bridge. Today sits in the AGAINST set.
The money's biography. Over 19 priced runs, the market has historically over-loved this horse (blind BSP backing -56%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 0 steams to 7 drifts across the career; the wins came at BSP 2.8, 5.7; all 2 traded 1.01 in-running - when the blow lands it is decisive; caught from a winning position 3 times - a teaser at the finish. Peak conviction: 22 Jun 2025 at Ffos Las, £136k matched of £266k in the race. The recent money (newest first):
19 Aug 2026
Carlisle
drifted 32.1 → 110.0
£2k of £133k
beaten 6th
30 Jul 2026
Wolverhampton
held steady 4.8 → 4.6
£31k of £140k
beaten 3rd
20 May 2026
Kempton Park
held steady 7.2 → 6.2
£16k of £125k
beaten 6th
The last run's market share (2% of the pool against a 27% norm) is the loudest line on the page: the money left BEFORE the race, and the result proved it right. The recent pattern: the money has left. Today, live: morning 18 → current 28 (drifting).
The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 05-20: finished 6 at BSP 6.2, traded 6.00 in-running; 07-30: finished 3 at BSP 4.6, traded 1.45 in-running; 08-19: finished 6 at BSP 110.0, traded 23.00 in-running.
The form, reconciled. Every timed win came racing forward - forwardness is part of the winning recipe.
The people. The yard, last 14 days: 2 winners from 15 runners (13%) - in form.
The campaign. Runs 2 days after the last start. The wins came 15-18 days after a previous run - today is OUTSIDE the winning window.
Today's ask. Hamilton Park on Good to Soft: front-runners win at 1.65x chance (299 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.45m. For this horse, today's field-relative read is AGAINST: finishing profile vs what the course demands. The race shape: 5 early types in a 11-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is one of them, cast in the pressure. The Setup Read counts this horse -1 across its six measured dimensions - set up against, by the count. Drawn 7 of 11 (the early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–11)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #9, votes for: race-fit (ran <=45d); fits the winner profile on recency.
The live signals. On the exchange he has been drifting since 06:40 - 21 then, 28 at 13:00. Our own ledger holds the receipts from the last start (Carlisle, 19 Aug): the figure read part-hit, the pace read missed, the h2h read missed, the connections read missed - the same nightly grading that feeds the masthead record.
The watch line. The read flips positive the day two things reappear together: the old numbers on the clock, and the money arriving - at a track the map likes. Neither was present today.
FORMLAB
ASHEN (IRE)
Who this is. A 17-run class 4 handicapper. 1 career win, on the record:
05 May 2026
Ayr
~7f
BSP 2.34
off 63
The mark has slid from 74 to 67 - the handicapper's own verdict on the arc of this career. The recent core is turf: 12 of the last 17 runs.
The figures. The FormLab figure today: 76.0, ranked #8 in this field; career best 76. Per-run ratings, last 5: 74 → 72 → 75 → 63 → 76. The best of them (76) was set 07 Aug 2026 at Musselburgh. The latest ratings sit at or near the best - the ability is current, not historical.
The handicap. Today's mark is 68 - 5 lb HIGHER than the 63 it last won off; the handicapper still holds the form hostage. The winning marks on record: 63 - today's 68 sits outside that band. The mark: 67, then raised 1 lb to today's 68.
The class. At today's level (class 4): 5 runs, 0 wins, 2 top-3.
The company. The recent fields' median marks: 67, 67, 70, 75, 80. Today's field median is 75 - a 5 lb STRONGER race than the recent company. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 12th, 12th, 16th, 2nd, 18th; today's course ranks 16th - within the recent range.
The conditions. At today's distance: 1 win from 15 tries - below market expectation at the trip (0.48). On soft-side ground (today's band): 2 runs, 0 wins, 1 top-3. The record reads clearly better on good ground - today's band is not the favourite.
The horse on the clock - improving. The recent six have moved forward on the six before: closing speed 101.0% to -%, early position 0.85 to 0.70. Run by run (newest first):
07 Aug 2026
Musselburgh
fin 2/11
FSF 73
pos 0.27
fsp 101.3 (TF)
24 Jul 2026
York
fin 12/18
FSF 67
pos 1.00
fsp 99.2 (TF)
11 Jul 2026
Hamilton Park
fin 2/5
FSF 67
pos 1.00
fsp 97.7
06 Jul 2026
Ayr
fin 4/11
FSF 67
pos 1.00
fsp 101.6 (TF)
19 Jun 2026
Ayr
fin 3/8
FSF 68
pos 0.62
fsp 102.2 (TF)
05 May 2026
Ayr
fin 1/7
FSF 64
pos 0.29
fsp 104.5 (TF)
The venue. 1 previous try at today's course: 2 - the record here is mixed, whatever the profile says.
The mechanism (career read). No stride record at this course yet, so the career speaks: 7.25m a stride over 16 measured runs against 7.43m at this LONG-stride track - a SHORT-striding horse on a galloping track - the action argues with the geometry. [P96] tested this cell over 144,801 runs: fully priced by the market. It explains; it never tips.
The map (current profile vs every measured course - standing read, field-blind by construction). Best fits: no strong home - the least-against are Ayr (where the wins live). Reads against: Bath, Beverley, Brighton, Catterick Bridge. Today sits in the AGAINST set.
The money's biography. Over 17 priced runs, the market has historically over-loved this horse (blind BSP backing -86%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 0 steams to 4 drifts across the career; the win came at BSP 2.3. Peak conviction: 05 May 2026 at Ayr, £109k matched of £238k in the race. The recent money (newest first):
07 Aug 2026
Musselburgh
held steady 10.9 → 11.5
£20k of £274k
beaten 2nd
24 Jul 2026
York
held steady 21.0 → 16.8
£8k of £164k
beaten 12th
11 Jul 2026
Hamilton Park
drifted 2.7 → 3.2
£53k of £141k
beaten 2nd
The recent money pattern is quiet. Today, live: morning 6 → current 5.2 (backed).
The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 07-11: finished 2 at BSP 3.2, traded 1.50 in-running; 07-24: finished 12 at BSP 16.8, traded 22.00 in-running; 08-07: finished 2 at BSP 11.5, traded 6.60 in-running.
The people. The yard, last 14 days: 4 winners from 39 runners (10%) - quiet. This jockey with this yard: 343 prior rides, A/E 1.18 - a combination the market underestimates.
The campaign. Runs 14 days after the last start.
Today's ask. Hamilton Park on Good to Soft: front-runners win at 1.65x chance (299 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.45m. For this horse, today's field-relative read is AGAINST: run style vs how races develop here. The race shape: 5 early types in a 11-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is not among them - the collapse, if it comes, is the opportunity. The Setup Read counts this horse -1 across its six measured dimensions - set up against, by the count. Drawn 9 of 11 (the early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–11)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #4, votes for: race-fit (ran <=45d); form (top-3 LTO or recent win); market top-3; top-2 speed vs its fields; FormLab watch flag; fits the winner profile on market position; fits the winner profile on recency; meets much weaker company by the marks; against: habitually slow away; 5lb+ above last winning mark.
The live signals. The clock's pace-adjusted read files the last run WATCH - better than the bare result suggests. In the read's own words: “Runner-up at Musselburgh (7f) — above the field's pace-adjusted level; in a fast-run race it finished +1.16 SD clear of the field on the clock (raw final 2f -0.39s vs par, so the bare time understates it). Closed around par (FSP 99.2%).”. On the exchange he has been backed since 06:40 - 6.6 then, 5.2 at 13:00. Our own ledger holds the receipts from the last start (Musselburgh, 07 Aug): the figure read missed, the connections read hit, the class read part-hit, the pace read part-hit - the same nightly grading that feeds the masthead record.
The watch line. A mixed page - the next timed run decides which story this becomes.
FORMLAB
SHOOT TO KILL (IRE)
Who this is. A 40-run handicapper. 4 career wins, each on the record (newest first):
13 Aug 2025
Gowran Park
~8f
BSP 8.93
12 May 2025
Roscommon
~8f
BSP 14.70
off 80
20 Dec 2024
Dundalk
~7f
BSP 7.30
off 74
09 Aug 2023
Brighton
~8f
BSP 80.00
off 72
The mark has slid from 84 to 74 - the handicapper's own verdict on the arc of this career.
The figures. The FormLab figure today: 74.0, ranked #9 in this field; career best 85. Per-run ratings, last 5: 75 → 76 → 54 → 83 → 74. The best of them (85) was set 21 Mar 2025 at Dundalk. The latest ratings sit at or near the best - the ability is current, not historical.
The handicap. Today's mark is 74 - 6 lb BELOW the 80 it last won off; the handicapper has relented, the question is whether the horse has anything left to relent for. The winning marks on record: 72, 74, 80 - today's 74 sits inside that band. The mark had been rising across the last runs (72 → 74).
The class. At today's level (class 4): 10 runs, 2 wins, 3 top-3. In stronger company (class 3-3): 3 runs, 0 wins, 1 top-3 - the level matters. DROPS in grade today (class 3 last time → 4).
The company. The recent fields' median marks: 76, 65, 64, 67, 76. Today's field median is 75 - a 8 lb STRONGER race than the recent company.
The conditions. At today's distance: 2 wins from 22 tries - in line with the market (0.96). On soft-side ground (today's band): 5 runs, 0 wins, 1 top-3.
The clock. Fewer than three timed runs on the sectional record - no profile can honestly be claimed yet.
The mechanism (career read). No stride record at this course yet, so the career speaks: 7.79m a stride over 2 measured runs against 7.43m at this LONG-stride track - the action matches the track's extreme. [P96] tested this cell over 144,801 runs: fully priced by the market. It explains; it never tips.
The money's biography. Over 40 priced runs, the market has historically been LATE on this horse (blind BSP backing +172%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 1 steam to 19 drifts across the career; the wins came at BSP 80.0, 7.3, 14.7, 8.9; all 4 traded 1.01 in-running - when the blow lands it is decisive; caught from a winning position 3 times - a teaser at the finish. Peak conviction: 08 Mar 2024 at Dundalk, £36k matched of £153k in the race. The recent money (newest first):
28 Jul 2026
Galway
drifted 15.0 → 48.0
£13k of £184k
beaten 6th
08 Jul 2026
Fairyhouse
held steady 18.2 → 12.5
£10k of £178k
beaten 3rd
11 Jun 2026
Leopardstown
held steady 14.7 → 10.5
£9k of £116k
beaten 8th
The recent money pattern is quiet. Today, live: morning 15 → current 17.5 (drifting).
The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 06-11: finished 8 at BSP 10.5; 07-08: finished 3 at BSP 12.5, traded 6.00 in-running; 07-28: finished 6 at BSP 48.0, traded 20.00 in-running.
The people. A validated yard angle fires - the money is drifting against this one today. This yard in that spot: 2024-25: 2/33 (A/E 1.79); 2026: 1/10 (A/E 2.1) - a spot where this yard beats the market.
The campaign. Runs 24 days after the last start. The wins came 28-121 days after a previous run - today is OUTSIDE the winning window.
Today's ask. Hamilton Park on Good to Soft: front-runners win at 1.65x chance (299 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.45m. For this horse, no fit read (too few timed runs against this field). The race shape: 5 early types in a 11-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is one of them, cast in the pressure. The Setup Read counts this horse +0 across its six measured dimensions - neutral on the day's setup. Drawn 4 of 11 (the early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–11)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #7, votes for: drops in class; race-fit (ran <=45d); quickest early type; sharp from the stalls; fits the winner profile on recency; against: sectional profile stale.
The live signals. On the exchange he has been steady since 08:15 - 18 then, 17.5 at 13:00.
The watch line. A mixed page - the next timed run decides which story this becomes.
FORMLAB
STIRRUP CUP
Who this is. A 23-run class 5 handicapper. 3 career wins, each on the record (newest first):
08 Jun 2026
Carlisle
~6f
BSP 3.88
off 70
22 Sep 2025
Hamilton Park
~6f
BSP 6.20
off 62
11 Sep 2024
Carlisle
~6f
BSP 7.06
off 66
2 of the 3 came at Carlisle - the career has an address. The recent core is turf: 17 of the last 20 runs.
The figures. The FormLab figure today: 70.7, ranked #10 in this field; career best 81. Per-run ratings, last 5: 79 → 78 → 63 → 81 → 68. The best of them (81) was set 08 Jun 2026 at Carlisle. The latest ratings sit at or near the best - the ability is current, not historical.
The handicap. Today's mark is 73 - 3 lb HIGHER than the 70 it last won off; the handicapper still holds the form hostage. The winning marks on record: 66, 62, 70 - today's 73 sits outside that band. The mark: 70, then raised 3 lb to today's 73.
The class. At today's level (class 4): 7 runs, 0 wins, 0 top-3. In stronger company (class 2-3): 2 runs, 0 wins, 1 top-3. RISES in grade today (class 5 last time → 4).
The company. The recent fields' median marks: 69, 67, 77, 69, 68. Today's field median is 75 - a 6 lb STRONGER race than the recent company. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 11th, 11th, 16th, 24th, 16th; today's course ranks 16th - within the recent range.
The conditions. At today's distance: 3 wins from 23 tries - beats market expectation at the trip (1.26). On soft-side ground (today's band): 3 runs, 0 wins, 1 top-3.
The clock. A stable profile, no era shift: spends early and doesn't finish, drops in behind. Run by run (newest first):
17 Jun 2026
Hamilton Park
fin 5/8
FSF 57
pos 1.00
fsp 98.2
08 Jun 2026
Carlisle
fin 1/8
FSF 57
pos 1.00
fsp 100.3
17 May 2026
Hamilton Park
fin 9/13
FSF 60
pos 0.85
fsp 98.3 (TF)
18 Apr 2026
Thirsk
fin 3/18
FSF 55
pos 0.61
fsp 102.3 (TF)
10 Apr 2026
Thirsk
fin 2/15
FSF 51
pos 0.67
fsp 100.3 (TF)
29 Dec 2025
Newcastle
fin 8/10
FSF 56
pos 0.70
fsp 98.4
The last run's early position (1.00 of the field) was the furthest back this horse has ever raced.
The venue. 5 previous tries at today's course: 7-1-2-9-5 - the record here is mixed, whatever the profile says.
The mechanism. At this course this horse strides 7.65m on average - AT or ABOVE the course's own winning average of 7.45m. The track's shape works with this action, and the stride data shows it directly.
The map (current profile vs every measured course - standing read, field-blind by construction). Best fits: no strong home - the least-against are Chepstow, Wetherby. Reads against: Ascot, Ayr, Bath, Beverley. Today sits in the AGAINST set.
The money's biography. Over 23 priced runs, the market has historically over-loved this horse (blind BSP backing -27%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 0 steams to 6 drifts across the career; the wins came at BSP 7.1, 6.2, 3.9; all 3 traded 1.01 in-running - when the blow lands it is decisive. Peak conviction: 29 Sep 2025 at Hamilton Park, £84k matched of £198k in the race. The recent money (newest first):
17 Jun 2026
Hamilton Park
held steady 4.2 → 4.2
£58k of £179k
beaten 5th
08 Jun 2026
Carlisle
held steady 5.0 → 3.9
£43k of £198k
won
17 May 2026
Hamilton Park
held steady 8.4 → 9.0
£21k of £245k
beaten 9th
The recent pattern: the money is arriving. Today, live: morning 19.5 → current 17 (backed).
The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 05-17: finished 9 at BSP 9.0, traded 3.20 in-running; 06-08: finished 1 at BSP 3.9, traded 1.01 in-running; 06-17: finished 5 at BSP 4.2, traded 2.56 in-running.
The form, reconciled. Every timed win came from off the pace.
The people. The yard, last 14 days: 4 winners from 85 runners (5%) - cold. This jockey with this yard: 1740 prior rides, A/E 0.84 - a combination the market over-trusts. Headgear changes today (t → st).
The campaign. Runs 65 days after the last start. The wins came 22-31 days after a previous run - today is OUTSIDE the winning window.
Today's ask. Hamilton Park on Good to Soft: front-runners win at 1.65x chance (299 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.45m. For this horse, today's field-relative read is AGAINST: stride pattern for this track shape; run style vs how races develop here. The race shape: 5 early types in a 11-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is not among them - the collapse, if it comes, is the opportunity. The Setup Read counts this horse -1 across its six measured dimensions - set up against, by the count. Drawn 1 of 11 (the early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–11)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #10, votes for: form (top-3 LTO or recent win); top-2 speed vs its fields; energy in the winning band; proven at trip; proven on the going; yard positive in today’s setup; against: steps into much stronger company by the marks; habitually slow away; yard cold; clock FADE.
The live signals. The clock's pace-adjusted read files the last run FADE - flattered by how the race unfolded. In the read's own words: “[STALE - last run 65d ago] Finished 5th at Hamilton Park (6f) — it unloaded one of the biggest mid-race moves in the field, quickening by 1.96s per furlong through the middle off a slow start, and the closing 2f then emptied out (final call -0.39s below the ha…”. On the exchange he has been backed since 06:40 - 34 then, 17 at 13:00.
The watch line. A mixed page - the next timed run decides which story this becomes.
FORMLAB
WHISKEY KISSES (IRE)
Who this is. A 11-run class 6 handicapper. yet to win.
The mark has slid from 72 to 62 - the handicapper's own verdict on the arc of this career.
The figures. The FormLab figure today: 69.0, ranked #11 in this field; career best 70. Per-run ratings, last 5: 9 → 51 → 69 → 66 → 69. The best of them (70) was set 02 Oct 2025 at Chelmsford City. The latest ratings sit at or near the best - the ability is current, not historical.
The handicap. Today's mark is 63, yet to win off any mark. The mark had been dropping across the last runs (69 → 62), then raised 1 lb to today's 63.
The class. At today's level (class 4): 2 runs, 0 wins, 0 top-3. RISES in grade today (class 6 last time → 4).
The company. The recent fields' median marks: 78, 67, 64, 60, 62. Today's field median is 75 - a 11 lb STRONGER race than the recent company. On the course class ladder (1 = strongest of 36): the recent stops ranked 12th, 12th, 12th, 12th, 12th; today's course ranks 16th - the weakest-ranked stop of the recent campaign, easier company than the bare class suggests.
The conditions. At today's distance: 0 wins from 11 tries - below market expectation at the trip (0.0). On soft-side ground (today's band): 1 runs, 0 wins, 0 top-3.
The horse on the clock - and the one replacing it. Two different animals share this form book. The earlier era: early position 0.50 of the field, closing at 102.2%. The recent six: position 0.71, closing at 100.9%. The profile that earned the older form is not the one arriving today. Run by run (newest first):
08 Aug 2026
Ayr
fin 2/13
FSF 60
pos 0.62
fsp 99.1
20 Jul 2026
Ayr
fin 3/6
FSF 50
pos 0.67
fsp 101.9
13 Jul 2026
Ayr
fin 3/8
FSF 66
pos 0.88
fsp 97.7
06 Jul 2026
Ayr
fin 9/11
FSF 60
pos 0.45
fsp 101.6 (TF)
20 Jun 2026
Ayr
fin 14/14
FSF 48
pos 0.64
fsp 99.2 (TF)
25 Mar 2026
Lingfield Park
fin 6/7
FSF 57
pos 1.00
fsp 104.8
The mechanism (career read). No stride record at this course yet, so the career speaks: 7.13m a stride over 10 measured runs against 7.43m at this LONG-stride track - a SHORT-striding horse on a galloping track - the action argues with the geometry. [P96] tested this cell over 144,801 runs: fully priced by the market. It explains; it never tips.
The map (current profile vs every measured course - standing read, field-blind by construction). Best fits: Ascot, Carlisle, Doncaster, Ffos Las. Reads against: Brighton, Chester, Epsom Downs, Kempton Park
The money's biography. Over 11 priced runs, the market has historically over-loved this horse (blind BSP backing -100%) - a description of one horse, never a sample. 0 steams to 4 drifts across the career; . Peak conviction: 20 Jul 2026 at Ayr, £78k matched of £178k in the race. The recent money (newest first):
08 Aug 2026
Ayr
drifted 25.0 → 42.0
£3k of £153k
beaten 2nd
20 Jul 2026
Ayr
held steady 2.9 → 2.4
£78k of £178k
beaten 3rd
13 Jul 2026
Ayr
drifted 47.6 → 75.0
£3k of £236k
beaten 3rd
The last run's market share (2% of the pool against a 9% norm) is the loudest line on the page: the money left BEFORE the race, and the result proved it right. The recent pattern: the money has left. Today, live: morning 29 → current 65 (drifting).
The running. The in-play trace of the recent runs: 07-13: finished 3 at BSP 75.0, traded 20.00 in-running; 07-20: finished 3 at BSP 2.4, traded 1.35 in-running; 08-08: finished 2 at BSP 42.0, traded 20.00 in-running.
Where the lenses land. The clock says this horse has gone backward; the money says the same. These two reads share no data - one is sectional timing, the other pounds matched - and when independent lenses converge, that is a picture, not a coincidence.
The form, reconciled. The best of the old form (2nd at Chelmsford City, 02 Oct 2025) was earned by the EARLIER profile era - judge it against the horse that earned it, not the one arriving today. If the old numbers return on the clock, the map redraws - that is the thing to watch in the next sectionals.
The people. The yard, last 14 days: 0 winners from 11 runners (0%) - cold. A validated yard angle fires - the money is drifting against this one today. This yard in that spot: 2024-25: 4/127 (A/E 1.4); 2026: 0/29 (A/E 0.0) - that edge has NOT carried into 2026 - the pattern has reversed, treat with care.
The campaign. Runs 13 days after the last start.
Today's ask. Hamilton Park on Good to Soft: front-runners win at 1.65x chance (299 shape-read races) - the speed is cheap here; winning stride averages 7.45m. For this horse, today's field-relative read is AGAINST: stride pattern for this track shape; run style vs how races develop here. The race shape: 5 early types in a 11-runner field - pressure up front is likely, and this horse is not among them - the collapse, if it comes, is the opportunity. The Setup Read counts this horse +0 across its six measured dimensions - neutral on the day's setup. Drawn 10 of 11 (the early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–11)). The counted verdict ranks this horse #11, votes for: race-fit (ran <=45d); form (top-3 LTO or recent win); fits the winner profile on recency; against: steps into much stronger company by the marks; yard cold.
The live signals. On the exchange he has been drifting since 06:40 - 40 then, 65 at 13:00. Our own ledger holds the receipts from the last start (Ayr, 08 Aug): the figure read hit, the h2h read missed, the coursefit read part-hit - the same nightly grading that feeds the masthead record.
The watch line. The read flips positive the day two things reappear together: the old numbers on the clock, and the money arriving - at a track the map likes. Neither was present today.
